Ambev Stock: Brewer Posts Growth While Global Alcohol Sector Faces Historic Downturn

TLDR

• Ambev reported 7% net revenue growth and 3% EBITDA increase in Q3 2025, with normalized earnings per share up 8% year-over-year.
• The company approved a BRL 2.5 billion share buyback program and announced BRL 6 billion in total dividends for the year.
• Premium and super premium beer brands grew volumes by over 9%, with the premium segment nearing 50% market share in Brazil.
• Global alcohol stocks have lost $830 billion in market value since June 2021, with the sector down 46% from its peak.
• Changing drinking habits, health concerns, and competition from alternatives like cannabis and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are reshaping the industry.

Ambev reported net revenue growth of 7% in Q3 2025, bucking a broader trend that has seen global alcohol stocks lose $830 billion in market value since June 2021.

The Brazilian brewer’s EBITDA increased 3% with a 50 basis points margin expansion. Normalized earnings per share grew 8% year-over-year.

The company announced a BRL 2.5 billion share buyback program. Total dividends for the year reached BRL 6 billion.

Ambev S.A., ABEV

Cash flow from operating activities totaled BRL 6.9 billion. Normalized net income reached BRL 3.8 billion, up 7% year-over-year.

Stated net income hit BRL 4.9 billion, marking a 36% increase versus the previous year.

Premium Brands Drive Growth

Premium and super premium beer brands led Ambev’s performance. These segments saw volume growth exceeding 9% in the quarter.

The premium segment now holds nearly 50% of Brazil’s beer market share. This marks the sixth consecutive year of market share gains for Ambev in this category.

CEO Carlos Lisboa attributed the success to the company’s diverse portfolio strategy. The approach caters to different consumer needs and drinking occasions.

Ambev’s digital ecosystem showed strong momentum. Marketplace GMV grew 100% to an annualized BRL 8 billion.

Ze Delivery, the company’s beverage delivery platform, recorded 7% GMV growth. These digital channels are becoming increasingly important to the company’s distribution strategy.

Cost management initiatives helped offset softer industry volumes. Cash COGS per hectoliter grew below net revenue per hectoliter.

CFO Guilherme De Figueiredo Ferraz Parolari pointed to production cost controls and brewery footprint optimization. The company also leveraged its vertical operations to maintain margins.

Industry Headwinds Persist

Beer industry volumes in Brazil remained softer than expected during the quarter. Colder weather reduced consumption occasions, particularly in southern and southeastern regions.

Consumer purchasing power constraints affected northern and northeastern markets. These factors combined to dampen overall industry performance.

Argentina presented additional challenges for Ambev. Beer volumes declined in the mid-single digits, underperforming the broader industry.

The CSD industry in Brazil experienced deceleration. Ambev’s volumes were affected by inventory phasing and revenue management decisions.

A Bloomberg gauge tracking 50 global alcohol companies now stands 46% below its June 2021 record high. Major producers including Diageo, Pernod Ricard, and Remy Cointreau hit decade-low stock prices this year.

Kweichow Moutai, China’s baijiu giant, trades more than 40% below its 2021 peak. Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman and Australia’s Treasury Wine Estates have similarly declined.

A Gallup gauge of US alcohol consumption fell to its lowest level since records began in 1939. Warnings from health organizations have reduced drinking among Gen X consumers.

Millennials and Gen Z show less interest in alcohol compared to previous generations. Celebrities promoting non-alcoholic alternatives have reinforced this shift.

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic are affecting alcohol consumption patterns. Cannabis alternatives are also capturing market share from traditional alcoholic beverages.

Some investors see opportunity in the downturn. The Bloomberg global alcohol stocks gauge trades at around 15 times forward estimated earnings, less than half its 2021 high.

Value hedge fund Cook & Bynum has increased positions in Ambev and Peruvian brewer Backus y Johnston. Partner Richard Cook cited the companies’ market dominance and steady earnings as reasons for optimism.

Ambev’s Q3 results included higher financial expenses driven by FX hedging carry costs in Brazil and US dollar sourcing costs in Bolivia.

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