NIO Stock: Record October Deliveries Drive Stock Higher Despite Overvaluation Concerns

TLDR

• NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, marking the first time monthly deliveries surpassed 40,000 units
• Stock jumped 4.6% on Monday and gained 5.1% for the week following the delivery announcement
• October deliveries increased 92.6% from a year earlier and 16% higher than September
• DCF analysis suggests the stock is overvalued by 17.2% at current price of $6.18
• New sub-brands Onvo and Firefly targeting mid-range and compact segments contributed to delivery growth

NIO shares climbed 4.6% on Monday after the Chinese electric vehicle maker reported record-breaking delivery numbers for October. The stock hit HK$57.1 in Hong Kong trading by 03:25 GMT.

NIO Inc., NIO

The company delivered 40,397 vehicles last month. This represents a 92.6% increase from October 2024.

It marks the first time NIO’s monthly deliveries have crossed the 40,000-vehicle threshold. The company also saw a 16% increase compared to September’s figures.

NIO attributed the surge to strong demand across its entire vehicle lineup. The company specifically highlighted its new sub-brands Onvo and Firefly as key contributors to the growth.

These sub-brands target different market segments. Onvo focuses on the mid-range market while Firefly aims at the compact segment.

The weekly performance showed gains as well. NIO’s stock price jumped 5.1% over the past week.

However, the monthly picture looks different. The stock is still down 5.8% over the past month.

Year-to-date performance tells a more positive story. The stock is up 59.3% so far in 2024.

Valuation Concerns Persist

Despite the delivery success, valuation metrics suggest caution. A discounted cash flow analysis estimates NIO’s intrinsic value at $6.18 per share.

This suggests the stock trades about 17.2% above its fair value. The company currently operates with negative free cash flow of approximately CN¥20.2 billion.

Analysts project a turning point ahead. By 2029, NIO’s free cash flow is expected to reach CN¥8.26 billion.

The price-to-sales ratio also shows similar patterns. NIO currently trades at 1.84x P/S ratio.

The auto industry average stands at 1.25x. NIO’s peer group averages around 1.89x.

Competition Heats Up

NIO isn’t alone in posting strong October numbers. XPeng, another Chinese EV maker, also reported record deliveries.

XPeng delivered 42,013 vehicles in October. This represents a 76% increase from a year earlier.

The company saw a 1% increase compared to September. XPeng shares jumped as much as 4.8% to HK$91.4 on Monday.

XPeng credited growth to strong demand for its X9 MPV and G6 SUV models. The company is also expanding into European markets.

Both companies are ramping up production and expanding their lineups. The competition in China’s EV market continues to intensify.

NIO’s strategic focus on sub-brands appears to be working. The Onvo and Firefly brands help the company compete across different price points.

The company now offers options for customers looking for mid-range vehicles and compact models. This broader appeal contributed to the record-breaking October performance.

NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October 2025, representing a 92.6% year-over-year increase and marking the first time monthly deliveries exceeded 40,000 units.

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