Following Zapad-2025, Belarus Receives Ballistic Missiles From Russia

Last week, elected officials, foreign ministers, and senior government representatives from over 40 countries gathered in Belarus for the Third Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security. The two-day event featured speeches from the presidents of Belarus and Serbia, as well as foreign ministers from Hungary, Russia, Myanmar, and South Korea. These individuals highlighted the importance of cooperating on security and defense issues across Eurasia. The conference also featured panels dedicated to arms control and economic security.

But as the participants at the event highlighted methods for decreasing tensions and conflicts between countries throughout Eurasia, the speech delivered by Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka at the conference was telling. In his address at the Third Minsk International Conference, the Belarusian president claimed that the Russian Federation had stored some of its nuclear weapons in Belarus. He also announced that Russian intermediate-range ballistic missiles, known as Oreshniks, had been deployed to Belarus.

“The deployment of these weapons in Belarus is nothing more than a response to the escalation of the situation [between Russia and Ukraine],” Lukashenka said in his speech at the conference. “We are not threatening anyone [with these capabilities]. We are simply ensuring our security.”

Following Lukashenka’s presentation at the Third Minsk International Conference, the Belarusian government confirmed that it had received Oreshniks from Russia. In its assessment, the Belarusian government also estimated that these ballistic missiles would be fully operational and placed on combat duty within Belarus by the end of December.

The arrival of these Oreshniks comes after Belarus and Russia held a four-day military exercise in September. Known as Zapad-2025, the training drills focused on air defense and combat readiness of Belarusian and Russian soldiers. A portion of the exercises also centered around nuclear weapons training, as well as the use of other forms of military equipment. One of the weapons systems featured during Zapad-2025 was the Oreshnik.

In response to Lukashenka’s announcement regarding the arrival of Russian ballistic missiles in Belarus, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy argued that this would create new security risks for Europe. He added that countries bordering Belarus would be vulnerable.

Oreshnik missiles have a range of “5,000 kilometers, [with] a ‘dead zone’ of about 700 kilometers,” Zelenskyy said. “So Europeans – especially those in Eastern Europe, our Baltic colleagues and everyone else – need to pay attention to this. It is important to pay attention to these risks.”

These latest developments have placed the Ukrainian Armed Forces on high alert. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenka has assisted Russian President Vladimir Putin in the conflict. Throughout the course of the war, the Belarusian government has permitted the Russians to transport military weapons and equipment from Russia into Belarus, where they are then used for the war in Ukraine. Russian troops have also previously stayed in barracks within Belarus as troops moved through the country before being deployed to fight in Ukraine. Finally, during the initial stages of the Russian Federation’s full-scale military incursion into Ukraine, the Belarusian government allowed Russia to conduct missile strikes on Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Lukashenka, however, has fallen short of deploying Belarusian forces to fight in the war. According to a survey conducted by Chatham House, the majority of Belarusian citizens do not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, most Belarusians oppose the potential option of sending troops into Ukraine. Finally, dozens of senior officers and soldiers from the Belarusian military resigned to protest Lukashenka as they oppose supporting Russia during the war. As a result, the Belarusian president and his government have decided not to send troops to Ukraine.

Nonetheless, Oreshniks pose a new threat to Ukraine. The Russian ballistic missiles have previously threatened Ukraine’s defense capabilities during the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. When Oreshniks were first launched in November 2024, the missiles moved through the upper atmosphere, making them difficult to detect by Ukraine’s air defense systems. The Oreshniks also move at several thousand kilometers per hour, thus posing additional challenges for Ukraine.

Since these ballistic missiles have now been provided to Belarus, this will increase Russia’s striking capabilities within Ukraine. Minsk is only 440 kilometers from Kyiv, while Moscow is 1,500 kilometers away from the Ukrainian capital. Given this geography, should Russia opt to fire Oreshniks on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, this would make the attacks on Ukraine more deadly as the Russians would be able to strike Ukraine’s critical infrastructure more quickly. It would also give the Ukrainian Armed Forces less time to react to the potential deployment of these ballistic missiles.

Now, as the Belarusians prepare their defense systems with the newly arrived Oreshniks, Ukrainian officials will closely monitor these developments in Belarus. With the expectation that the missiles will be operational in December, Ukraine will likely be preparing for any necessary precautions in anticipation of a future attack, as a sense of uncertainty continues to loom.