JPMorgan strategists say Bitcoin (BTC) now appears undervalued relative to gold following a steep October sell-off driven by leveraged liquidations and market turmoil.
Bitcoin fell more than 20% last month after hitting an all-time high of $126,000, a drop that JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou attributed to heavy deleveraging in futures markets and fallout from a $128 million hack of the DeFi platform Balancer.
He noted that the ratio of open interest in perpetual futures to Bitcoin’s market capitalization has since returned to average levels, suggesting that “excess leverage has largely been cleared.”
ETF outflows have been modest compared to prior inflows, Panigirtzoglou added, pointing to a more stable market backdrop.
“Most of the deleveraging activity is now behind us,” he said, adding that the futures open interest ratio remains a key indicator for short-term price direction.
On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin is now trading at a discount compared to gold. JPMorgan’s analysis found that as gold’s price surged above $4,000 per ounce—bringing higher volatility—Bitcoin’s own volatility subsided. To reach parity with gold’s $6.2 trillion in private-sector investment on a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s price would need to climb roughly two-thirds, to around $170,000.
“Having been $36,000 too high compared with gold at the end of last year, Bitcoin is now around $68,000 too low,” Panigirtzoglou wrote.
With leverage normalized and volatility easing, JPMorgan sees room for “significant upside” over the next six to twelve months if current conditions persist—an outlook that could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a digital alternative to gold in investor portfolios.
Bitcoin price update
Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,977 after a tumultuous October. Bitcoin kicked off October with bull‑momentum, hitting a fresh all‑time high north of approximately $125,000–$126,000 around October 6.
But that euphoria proved short-lived. Soon after the peak, Bitcoin came under pressure: a massive liquidation of over $19 billion in perpetual futures contracts accelerated the unwind.
Macroeconomic jitters — trade tensions, central‑bank ambiguity and risk‑asset weakening — compounded the correction.
By month‑end, Bitcoin had recorded its first losing October since 2018, slipping around 4 %–5 % overall and suffering one of its worst October performances on record.
Despite the recent fall, the year‑to‐date picture remained positive — though less exuberant than some bulls expected.
Earlier in October, JPMorgan put out some research that suggests Bitcoin could be undervalued versus gold, with potential to rise to $165,000 based on volatility-adjusted comparisons and growing investor demand.
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-cheap-to-gold-jp-morgan
