US Senate Budget Deal May Lift Bitcoin Amid Shutdown Resolution

• US Senate secures Democratic support for House-approved bill after 15 attempts.

• The deal meets the 60-vote threshold to pass, with an official vote pending to lift the shutdown.

• Bitcoin dropped over 17% to $104,370 amid shutdown uncertainty, following a high of $126,080 on October 6; historically, it rallied 266% after the 2018-2019 shutdown.

US Senate budget deal signals end to government shutdown, boosting crypto market outlook. Bitcoin faces relief from uncertainty—explore impacts and predictions for recovery. Stay informed on crypto trends today.

How will the end of the US government shutdown impact crypto markets?

The end of the US government shutdown is poised to alleviate ongoing uncertainty that has weighed heavily on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The Senate’s agreement on a multi-part budget bill, reported by Politico, clears the path for reopening federal operations after 40 days of closure. This resolution could restore investor confidence, much like the 266% Bitcoin surge following the 2018-2019 shutdown, enabling markets to focus on fundamentals rather than political gridlock.

Bitcoin’s change in price since Oct. 1. Source: CoinGecko

What caused Bitcoin’s recent price drop during the shutdown?

The prolonged US government shutdown has been a major drag on crypto assets, with Bitcoin falling over 17% from its October 6 peak of $126,080 to around $104,370, according to CoinGecko data. This decline intensified on October 10 after President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China, which rippled through global markets and heightened economic fears. Experts note that such political instability disrupts liquidity and investor sentiment, leading to risk-off behavior in volatile sectors like cryptocurrencies. For instance, trading volumes for major coins decreased by up to 25% during peak shutdown tensions, as reported by market analysts. Resolving the shutdown could reverse this trend, allowing Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially climb as federal funding resumes economic activities.

The crypto market’s sensitivity to US policy stems from its role as a global financial hub. Shutdowns delay regulatory clarity and government spending, indirectly affecting crypto adoption through reduced institutional participation. Historical data from the last shutdown in late 2018 to early 2019 shows Bitcoin bottoming at $3,550 before surging to $13,000 by May 2019—a 266% gain driven by renewed economic optimism. Current market observers, including those from financial institutions, suggest a similar pattern could emerge, though tempered by broader macroeconomic factors like trade tensions.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the US government shutdown expected to end following the Senate’s budget deal?

The US Senate’s budget deal, which has garnered sufficient support to pass the 60-vote threshold, points to an end as early as this week. Prediction markets like Polymarket indicate a 54% chance of resolution between Tuesday and Friday, with an official vote still required to finalize the agreement and lift the 40-day shutdown.

Why has the government shutdown negatively affected Bitcoin prices?

The government shutdown creates uncertainty by halting federal operations, which scares investors away from high-risk assets like Bitcoin. This has led to a 17% price drop to $104,370 since early October, exacerbated by tariff announcements. Ending the shutdown should ease these pressures, potentially allowing Bitcoin to rebound as markets regain stability and focus shifts to positive catalysts like tariff revenue dividends.

Prediction Markets and Market Sentiment

Prediction platforms are increasingly optimistic about the shutdown’s resolution. On Polymarket, bettors now see a 54% probability of the government reopening between Tuesday and Friday, up from 27% just a day prior. This shift reflects growing confidence in the Senate’s three-part budget agreement, led by Republican Majority Leader John Thune after 15 negotiation rounds with Democrats.

Polymarket odds on when the US government shutdown will end. Source: Polymarket

Similar sentiments appear on Kalshi, where odds favor an end on Friday, marking 44 days of closure. These platforms aggregate crowd wisdom, often proving accurate for political events. Additionally, President Trump’s Sunday announcement of $2,000 dividends from tariff revenues for about 85% of eligible adults—excluding high earners—could inject stimulus into the economy, indirectly supporting risk assets like crypto.

Financial expert Robert Kiyosaki has voiced optimism amid the turmoil, stating he is actively buying Bitcoin with targets of $250,000 and gold at $27,000. Such endorsements from prominent figures underscore the potential for upside once stability returns. However, markets remain cautious until the vote confirms the deal.

Historical Context and Crypto Resilience

Government shutdowns have periodically tested crypto markets, yet they often emerge stronger. The 2018-2019 event, lasting 35 days, saw Bitcoin plummet initially but then rally dramatically as resolution brought clarity. Today’s scenario mirrors that, with added layers from trade policies. CoinGecko’s price tracking reveals Bitcoin’s volatility tied directly to these events, underscoring the asset’s role as a hedge against traditional financial disruptions.

Broader crypto adoption continues despite short-term dips. Institutional inflows, tracked by on-chain data, held steady during the shutdown, suggesting long-term faith in digital assets. Analysts from reputable firms emphasize that while political noise creates noise, Bitcoin’s fundamentals—such as halving cycles and network security—drive sustained growth.

Key Takeaways

• Senate’s budget deal advances: After 15 attempts, the agreement secures enough votes to potentially end the 40-day shutdown this week, reducing crypto market uncertainty.
• Bitcoin’s shutdown impact: Prices fell 17% to $104,370 due to political risks and tariffs, but historical precedents show strong rebounds post-resolution.
• Prediction markets signal hope: Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi forecast an end soon, with added economic boosts from tariff dividends potentially aiding market recovery.

Conclusion

The US Senate’s budget deal to end the government shutdown represents a pivotal moment for crypto markets, alleviating the uncertainty that has capped Bitcoin’s recovery and pressured altcoins. With historical rallies like the 266% surge after the last shutdown as precedent, and prediction markets backing a swift resolution, investors may soon see renewed momentum. As tariff revenues promise dividends for most Americans, this could further stimulate economic activity and crypto interest—positioning digital assets for growth in a stabilizing environment. Monitor developments closely for opportunities in this evolving landscape.