Bitcoin (BTC) Nears Bull Surge: Patience Before Liftoff?

Market sentiment has moved into Extreme Fear as many Bitcoin investors fear the worst. Are their fears about to be realised, or is this the darkest before the dawn? 

Extreme fear grips the market

Source: alternative.me

From an Extreme Fear reading of 24 on Wednesday, Thursday has dawned with market sentiment sliding deeper into that fear with a reading of 15. In fact, there has only been one time in the last year that the index has been worse, and that was in February 2025 when the yield curve inverted - a recession indicator that often heralds an economic slowdown.

That said, according to the Fear and Greed Index, whenever market sentiment has descended to around 10 and below, this has usually resulted in a price bottom and a subsequent recovery.

Is a $BTC bottom starting to form?

Source: TradingView

The $BTC price continues to descend, making lower highs, but also making some slightly higher lows which perhaps suggests that a bottom is starting to form. That said, in order for the price to go higher, it might be expected that $BTC first comes down to retest the major trendline below. This could take the price to around $97,000.

Be that as it may, it currently looks like the price could break through the small downtrend, allowing it to then climb up and perhaps test the descending trendline. 

At the bottom of the chart, the RSI indicator is maintaining below its own small trendline. A rejection or a breakout here would be reflected in the price action above.

Descending channel still guiding price action

Source: TradingView

The daily time frame reveals a descending channel (blue). The channel is by no means perfect, given the various surges beyond its top trendline. However, the $BTC price is still respecting it, and the mid-point of the channel has been acting as support since early September. 

If the horizontal support and the mid-point of the channel fail to hold the price up, there is the possibility that the bottom of the channel could be retested, perhaps with a candle wick down past the major trendline. 

At the bottom of the chart, the RSI indicator has broken through the downtrend line and has just retested it. This would tend to signal a bounce in the price action.

Look at the macro economic picture for the next few months

Source: TradingView

When the sky is falling in and it seems the world is about to end one just has to sit back and look at the bigger picture. A bear looking at the 2-week chart above would no doubt point to the missing red arrow path that would normally exit an ascending wedge pattern. 

On the other hand, one looks at the macro economic picture stretching into the next few months, with central bank money printing on a massive scale in order to roll over gargantuan piles of debt, a rising business cycle, U.S. mid terms, and an AI space race between the US and China which entails almost unlimited investment, and you have the recipe for the Bitcoin bulls to make one last effort to potentially lift the king of the cryptocurrencies towards $200,000.Just add to this that a $BTC bottom is probably forming now. 

Investors have to make their choice - sell, and protect their capital, avoiding a possible long recession and bear market, or potentially miss out on a rally of rallies. It was never said that investing is easy!

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.