Analysts eye $94K as key line in determining end of Bitcoin slump

Bitcoin’s fresh slide didn’t come out of nowhere as it was covered by a grinding mix of macro nerves, vanishing ETF demand, and an overleveraged market. The sudden collapse in the December rate cut outlook completely changed the tone. 

The global digital assets market cap has now lost more than $1 trillion since October. It now stands at around $3.26 trillion. Bitcoin, which had been clinging to the six-figure level for weeks, slipped below $100K as the selling pressure reached its peak. BTC price dipped by more than 6% in the last 24 hours.

Extreme fear grips crypto market

Bears’ takeover of the market collided with the heavy reversal in US ETF flows. Mid-November saw Bitcoin ETFs losing more than $1.1 billion in outflows in just 48 hours. SoSoValue’s data shows that Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $492 million. This marked the 3rd straight day of outflow. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini-Trust ETF was the only fund that posted inflows for the day. It netted around $4.17 million.

As the selling pressure rose, liquidity thinned out instantly. Once a few major support levels were cracked, it led to the dominoes falling. Rumors around centralized exchanges and high-profile DeFi security scares added to the Fear in the market. The Fear and Index is still flashing “Extreme Fear” with 16 points among the investors.

Bitcoin price has been running down by 14% in the last 30 days. However, it is still up by around 3% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. BTC briefly dipped to the $94K levels. Most analysts are now focused on $92,000 to $94,000 zones. A report suggests that this zone holds a cluster of long-term holders where 6–12-month buyers last built positions. 

If Bitcoin drops below this level, traders say the next logical magnet is the $85K region. This level could drag the correction well into early 2026. BTC is trading at an average price of $95,830 at the press time.

Macro holds the key

But despite the gloomy charts, on-chain data is not flashing “bear market.” CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju points out that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap is still pushing record highs. This means capital isn’t exiting the system. However, it hints that coins are quietly migrating into stronger hands. He added that accumulation wallets have been growing steadily during the selloff. This is a pattern seen in every mid-cycle reset since 2016.

Macro is a major variable to spark a recovery. A broad improvement in global liquidity would quickly revive ETF demand. Several structural indicators also suggest the market is closer to exhaustion than collapse. The NUPL has drifted toward historical reset ranges while long-term holder spending has eased. Meanwhile, markets are now pricing only a 40% chance of a December cut, down from nearly 90% a few weeks ago. 

Options traders are also flipping the opinion rapidly. Calls above $100K were looking like the safe bet for most of the year. Over the past 24 hours, that has changed dramatically as puts came at $85K and $90K now dominate open interest on Deribit. Nearly $1.2 billion in crypto positions were wiped out on Friday alone. Bitcoin accounted for roughly $344 million.

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