From Azerbaijan To UAE, Iran Is Surrounded By More Advanced Air Forces

Iran’s antiquated air force was practically powerless against Israel’s during the 12-day war in June. Closer to home, most neighboring countries of Iran have built up, or are in the process of building up, air forces with more advanced fighter jets, underlining Tehran’s urgent need to upgrade its air power.

Azerbaijan showcased its new JF-17C Block III fighter jets, recently acquired from Pakistan, at a military parade on Nov. 8. Baku has ordered 40 of these advanced fighters, which boast numerous advanced features, including electronically scanned array radars. The latest JF-17 can also fire China’s PL-15E beyond-visual range air-to-air missile, the same missile Pakistan used to shoot down at least one of India’s French-made Dassault Rafales during clashes in May.

Iran’s most advanced fighters remain its American-made Grumman F-14A Tomcats acquired in the 1970s. Tehran received 79 before the 1979 revolution, with at least a few dozen still in operation to the present day. A state-of-the-art aircraft for its time, the F-14, with its AWG-9 radar and AIM-54 Phoenix missile, was a pioneer in beyond-visual-range air warfare. The AIM-54 can hit aerial targets up to 100 miles away. Iran has built a derivative of the Phoenix called the Fakour-90.

However, neither of these missiles has the estimated 120-mile range of the PL-15E. While there is no indication as of writing that Azerbaijan has or will acquire PL-15Es, it wouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, Baku has recently taken delivery of strategic HQ-9BE ground-based air defense systems from China.

To Iran’s east, Turkey has also just concluded a deal for 44 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3A and Tranche 4 fighter jets. Ankara will also acquire the Meteor missile, which also has a range exceeding 120 miles, for these 4.5-generation fighters, which also boast modern AESA radars. Turkey also hopes to acquire 40 fifth-generation Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II stealth strike fighters in the near future and is developing an indigenous stealth jet, the TF Kaan.

Saudi Arabia also hopes to acquire the F-35. Ahead of its powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House, reports emerged that Riyadh wants 48 of these stealth fighters. U.S. officials fear such a sale could potentially expose the advanced aircraft to Chinese espionage. Furthermore, Israel wants a sale conditioned on normalization with the kingdom.

Still, one cannot rule out a potential sale of F-35s to Riyadh in the not-too-distant future under the current administration in Washington. An F-35 acquisition would significantly enhance Saudi Arabia’s already formidable air force, which already operates several advanced 4.5-generation Western jets.

Over the past decade, neighboring Qatar has also amassed a large fighter fleet of almost 100 4.5-generation Western-made jets of three types—Eurofighters, Rafales, and advanced American-made Boeing F-15QAs.

The United Arab Emirates was the first country to acquire more advanced F-16s than those operated by the U.S. Air Force in the 2000s. While Abu Dhabi suspended a previous deal for 50 F-35s reached at the end of the first Trump administration, it ordered 80 Rafale F4 multirole fighters from France in late 2021. These French jets will come armed with Meteor missiles and other advanced munitions. That deal alone is comparable to Iran’s landmark F-14A acquisition 50 years ago.

Other neighboring countries with Iran that have weaker air forces are also the least likely ones to become adversaries of Tehran. One exception is Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. However, Afghanistan lacks fighter jets and has an overall weak Air Force , which is unlikely to pose a significant threat to Iran.

To Iran’s north, it has maintained cordial relations with Turkmenistan in Central Asia. Ashgabat lacks any significant air force and doesn’t have fighter jets, only Soviet-made subsonic Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes. Armenia has also long maintained friendly relations with Iran, and aside from Su-25s, Yerevan operates only four modern Su-30SM multirole fighter jets.

Iraq, which also has close ties with Iran, operates a fleet of 34 F-16IQ Viper fighters. While these are more advanced than any fighter Iran has ordered in decades, they have suffered chronic maintenance issues since their delivery a decade ago. Reports indicate that Baghdad has plans to augment its air force with a dozen French Rafales.

Which leaves Pakistan. It’s worth remembering that before the Israeli and United States Air Force bombed Iran in June and Israel’s April and October 2024 strikes, Pakistan’s air force was the most recent one to do so, and the first since Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. After Iran struck alleged militant targets on Pakistani soil with drones and ballistic missiles in January 2024, Pakistan retaliated with fighter jets armed with standoff munitions against other alleged militant targets on Iranian soil in a classic tit-for-tat counterstrike. The incident highlighted how Pakistan has invested in conventional air power while Iran heavily relies on its indigenous ballistic missiles and armed drones.

Aside from the JF-17, which Pakistan jointly developed and built with China, Islamabad recently bought 36 advanced Chinese Chengdu J-10C Vigorous Dragon fighters. A Pakistani J-10C fired the PL-15 that brought down the Indian Rafale in May.

Furthermore, there are signs that Pakistan may eventually acquire China’s fifth-generation Shenyang J-35 stealth fighters, with Beijing already reportedly offering a sale of 40. However, that aircraft remains in development, which means Pakistan is unlikely to acquire any until at least the 2030s, if it does ultimately place an order.

Amidst all these developments, leaked Russian defense documents, shared by a hacker group known as Black Mirror in early October, purportedly confirm an Iranian order for 48 Russian Su-35 Flanker fighter jets, valued at 5-6 billion euros ($5.8-6.96 billion).

The disclosure appears to confirm a 2023 report by Iranian journalist Saeed Azimi, which revealed that Iran had made a “full payment” for 50 Flankers by 2021.

Either way, a completed Iranian Su-35 acquisition would hardly change the balance of air power in the Persian Gulf or vis-à-vis Israel’s world-class air force. If anything, these large-scale acquisitions of 4.5-generation and fifth-generation fighters in Tehran’s more immediate vicinity suggest that 48 Su-35s is the very least Iran’s air force needs not to become wholly outclassed and outgunned.