Bitcoin–Nasdaq correlation reaches highest level since 2022, as BTC mirrors tech stocks

Bitcoin’s relationship with US tech stocks is tightening again, and it has added a new layer of complexity to a market already dealing with fresh losses. Data shows that the 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to roughly 0.80. This turns out to be hitting its highest reading since 2022 and the second-strongest print in a decade.

The global digital assets market again printed red indexes all around. The cumulative crypto market cap dipped marginally over the last 24 hours but didn’t show any signs of recovering. It stood at around $3.25 trillion as Bitcoin went on a dip below $93,000 on Monday morning.

Bitcoin’s Nasdaq correlation spikes

As per the data shared by the Kobeissi Letter, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has remained positive over the last five years, except for brief periods in 2023. Over a five-year window, the correlation sits at 0.54. This shows how closely BTC has begun to trade like a high-beta tech stock.

However, its correlation to cash and gold is essentially flat.

The risk-on and risk-off dynamic was visible across Asia on Monday as markets slipped into the red. Investors are already bracing for a heavy week of US economic data and a crucial earnings print from Nvidia.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.7%. This comes after fresh GDP figures confirmed the economy contracted for the first time in six quarters.

Crypto markets saw a modest bounce after last week’s violent selloff. It has erased nearly $1.1 trillion in value over 41 days, and this comes out to an average drawdown of $27 billion per day. 

Bitcoin price dipped marginally over the last 24 hours to trade around $95,500. BTC is running down by more than 10% over the past 7 days. The biggest altcoin, Ethereum, plunged by more than 17% in the last 7 days, reflecting the fear sentiment among traders.

Small-cap crypto index crashes

The speed and depth of crypto’s decline have confused traders because the macro backdrop hasn’t materially worsened. President Trump reiterated last week that keeping the US “number one in crypto” is a priority. He also added that the regulatory clarity has been improving, not deteriorating.

The sell-off can be driven by two overlapping forces. Institutional outflows in one of them, as crypto funds saw $1.2 billion in withdrawals in the first week of November. Around $1.1 billion left the funds in the second week, which added pressure to already thin liquidity.

Extreme leverage is the second part of the sell-off, as crypto’s derivatives-heavy structure means many traders routinely bet at 20x, 50x, or even 100x leverage. A 2% move against a 100x position triggers liquidation that has already created a heavy pullback.

October 10 saw liquidation exceeding $19.2 billion and producing Bitcoin’s first-ever $20,000 daily candle. In the 16 days since, there have been three more sessions where liquidations surpassed $1 billion, and several others above $500 million. Each cascade has knocked sentiment sharply lower.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now collapsed to 10. It matched the February 2025 bottom and signaling extreme fear. Since early October, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by 25 percentage points, despite the two assets trading nearly in lockstep for the previous year.

The MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index has fallen to its lowest level since 2020. It tracks the smallest 50 coins in a 100-asset basket. Small-caps have been crushed during the deleveraging, BTC’s underperformance. Over the past five years, large-cap digital assets have been up roughly 380%, while the small-cap index has been down 8%.

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