XRP Price Could Surge: Two Scenarios as Spot ETFs Impact Market

TLDR

• Chad Steingraber outlines two possible price outcomes for XRP with the introduction of spot ETFs.
• In one scenario, XRP’s price stays stable while ETF issuers slowly accumulate the entire circulating supply.
• In the second scenario, XRP’s price rises sharply, reducing the pace at which issuers can accumulate XRP.
• Steingraber believes both outcomes are positive for XRP holders as scarcity or rising prices would boost demand.
• Fabio Marzella explains that ETF inflows do not immediately impact the spot market due to delayed settlement cycles.

Chad Steingraber, a well-known commentator in the XRP community, has outlined two possible scenarios for XRP’s price as spot ETFs enter the market. His analysis comes as investors continue to wonder why XRP has not yet surged, despite the strong debut of ETFs, like the one from Canary Capital. Steingraber’s insights focus on how ETF demand will affect XRP’s long-term price.

Two Potential Outcomes for XRP Price

Steingraber presents two possible price outcomes for XRP, each tied to how ETF issuers acquire XRP. In the first scenario, XRP’s price remains stable while issuers slowly gather the entire circulating supply over the next year. As this accumulation occurs, the lack of supply could drive XRP’s price up, creating a scarcity effect.

In the second scenario, XRP’s price rises sharply, slowing the rate at which issuers can accumulate XRP. A higher price would theoretically limit how much can be bought at any given time, thereby delaying the accumulation process. Nevertheless, Steingraber argues that both outcomes are positive for holders, as the limited supply or rising prices would likely increase demand.

“The key point is that either scenario results in a positive outcome for XRP holders,” Steingraber concluded. He emphasized that either scenario would see ETFs continuing to drive demand for XRP, supporting the price.

XRP ETFs and the Slow-Flow of Investor Funds

Fabio Marzella, Director of the XRPL Foundation Board, provided additional insight into the delayed effect of ETFs on XRP’s price. He explained that ETFs settle on a T+1 cycle, meaning issuers receive investor funds only the next business day. This delayed process means the actual buying of XRP does not happen immediately, even if large inflows occur.

Marzella also noted that most ETF issuers acquire XRP through over-the-counter (OTC) desks instead of public exchanges. This process masks the buying activity, preventing the spot market from reacting instantly to new demand. As a result, the impact of early ETF demand may take weeks to become visible in the market.

The broader market conditions compound this slow accumulation. XRP’s ETF debut coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s price, pulling down the entire market. Despite this, XRPC ETF saw a strong debut, recording $245 million in day-one inflows.

The upcoming launches of additional spot XRP ETFs could further affect XRP’s price trajectory. Issuers like Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares are planning to launch their own XRP ETFs. With six more launches expected, total inflows could reach $7.2 billion over the next year.

Recent projections show that if all seven ETFs attract $600 million per month, the total inflows would be massive. Using a conservative multiplier of 100x to estimate how ETF demand translates into market value, XRP’s market cap could rise by $720 billion. This would push XRP’s price toward $14, depending on favorable market conditions.

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