HBAR Could See a 34% Price Drop as ETF Inflows Slow and Open Interest Falls

TLDR

• HBAR ETF inflows have slowed, dropping by $1.71 million last week.
  
• HBAR’s open interest has dropped significantly, hitting a yearly low of $112 million.
  
• Hedera’s price has fallen by over 52% from its August peak of $0.3052.
  
• A death cross pattern on HBAR’s chart suggests further price risk.

Hedera Hashgraph’s native token, $HBAR, is facing significant downward pressure. Recent data shows a drop in ETF inflows and a marked decrease in open interest, both indicating reduced market interest. The $HBAR price has fallen by over 52% from its peak in August, and further downside risk is emerging. As ETF demand fades, the market is watching closely for potential further declines.

Declining ETF Inflows for HBAR

Canary Capital’s HBR Spot Hedera ETF has reduced its holdings of $HBAR from 409 million to approximately 413,316,979 tokens. Despite this, the ETF still controls around 0.83% of the total supply of $HBAR, which has a capped total of 50 billion. However, ETF inflows into the fund have dropped significantly.

The most recent transaction was an outflow of $1.71 million, with no new inflows recorded over the past three trading days. This downturn in demand has created a bearish outlook for HBAR, as ETF investors appear to be pulling away.

The fund has accumulated only $74 million in inflows and holds $61 million in assets today. Comparatively, Solana’s ETF has accumulated over $420 million in inflows, further emphasizing the shift in investor preference. As demand for $HBAR ETFs wanes, the price could continue to slide.

Falling Open Interest and Weak Futures Market Activity

In addition to reduced ETF demand, Hedera’s futures market shows signs of weakening. Open interest, which tracks the number of outstanding contracts, has dropped sharply. According to data from CoinGlass, Hedera’s futures open interest has fallen to $112 million, its lowest level this year.

This marks a sharp decline from the $450 million in open interest seen in early October. The sharp drop indicates that there is less confidence in the token’s price movement, with traders reducing their exposure to HBAR.

The reduction in futures open interest is often seen as a signal of weakening demand. This decline suggests that traders are not betting on an imminent recovery for $HBAR. With futures positions liquidated and the outlook remaining negative, there is increasing pressure on the asset’s price.

Bearish Technical Indicators

On the technical side, $HBAR’s price chart shows multiple signs of bearish momentum. The token has been in a strong downward trend since peaking at $0.3052 in July. The price has now reached $0.1400, with the potential to fall further. Recently, HBAR formed a death cross pattern, a technical indicator that occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average. This pattern often signals continued downward price movement.

The coin has also invalidated the bullish double-bottom pattern that previously offered some hope for recovery. At present, the $0.1553 support level has failed, leaving the next major support at the October low of $0.10. A move below this level could expose $HBAR to further declines, with a potential drop of around 30%.

Decline in Spot Market Volume

Further compounding these issues is a significant decline in spot market volume for $HBAR. The volume has dropped to $275 million, a sharp decrease from $1.74 billion in late October and even more so from $6 billion seen in December 2024. The reduction in trading volume indicates a lack of market activity and investor interest, which could further weigh on the token’s price.

With a declining price, reduced ETF inflows, low open interest, and diminishing spot market activity, $HBAR faces continued downside pressure. Traders and investors will be closely monitoring these trends to see if the token can stabilize or if the bearish outlook will continue

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