VanEck: Mid-Cycle Holders Are Driving the Latest Bitcoin Price Slide

TLDR:

• Mid-cycle holders drove the latest selling as long-term whales grew balances across multi-year periods.
• Futures markets reset sharply after tariff-linked liquidations triggered a deep drop in open interest.
• Minnow wallets absorbed supply as large whales reduced exposure over six-month and one-year windows.
• Age-band data shows older wallets remain steady while coins rotate across younger groups.

Bitcoin’s latest pullback has shifted attention to onchain behavior as traders search for clear signals. New research from VanEck points to mid-cycle holders as the primary sellers during the downturn. 

Older wallets are still accumulating while futures markets reset after tariff-linked liquidations. The Bitcoin price decline also follows heavy outflows from exchange-traded products over the past month.

Bitcoin Price Weakness Tied to Mid-Cycle Selling Pressure

Recent onchain data shows the selloff is concentrated in wallets active within the past five years, according to VanEck and Glassnode. These mid-cycle holders reduced exposure as the Bitcoin price fell, creating significant churn across younger address groups. 

In contrast, long-term wallets with five or more years of inactivity continued to increase balances through the period. This shift aligns with rotation patterns seen across previous Bitcoin cycles.

ETP data shows 49.3K BTC flowed out over the last 30 days, reducing balances by about two percent of total AUM. VanEck notes that many of these exits came from buyers who entered near the market peak and reacted to uncertainty around rate cuts. 

The research highlights how fear indicators reached their lowest level since March as tariff concerns disrupted sentiment. A large sale from a Satoshi-era wallet also added pressure during the same week.

Wallet distribution data reflects a broad reshuffle rather than blanket whale selling. Glassnode reports that 10K to 100K BTC wallets cut holdings across six-month and one-year windows. 

The supply moved mostly to 100 to 1,000 BTC holders, who expanded positions during the same period. Minnow-level accumulation helped offset the long-running reduction from larger whales.

Futures Reset Deepens the Bitcoin Price Drawdown

Futures markets show a sharp unwind after tariff-driven liquidations erased 19 percent of open interest within hours. Funding rates collapsed as positions reset, marking levels last seen during major 2024 and 2025 shocks. 

VanEck notes that basis levels dropped to their lowest readings since fall of 2023. The move signals reduced speculative demand as the Bitcoin price slipped through key support areas.

Short-term whale activity turned positive as some larger wallets added exposure in recent weeks. Glassnode data shows 10K to 100K BTC wallets posted small increases over 30, 60, and 90-day periods. 

This accumulation followed the steep open interest drop that pushed BTC lower by more than 20 percent. The pattern shows opportunistic repositioning during futures market stress.

Age-band data reinforces that older groups remain steady. Coins untouched for more than five years grew by 278K BTC over the last two years. 

Mid-cycle bands, especially the three-to-five-year group, saw persistent declines as coins migrated to newer addresses. VanEck notes that these holders often behave as cycle traders rather than long-term investors.

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