Bitcoin's price has dropped by nearly 30%, from 120,000 to 90,000. I've been dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin for three years, but I still haven't timed the market top. I've been regretting lately why I didn't sell at the peak of 120,000. The returns have now fallen significantly. I'm terrified I'll be on a wealth rollercoaster ride. If the four-year cycle theory of the Bitcoin market is not broken... This means I have to wait another 4 years. How many four-year periods are there in a lifetime? So, have we entered a bear market yet? I believe that not only I, but many people also want to know the answer. To avoid being influenced by market noise, and also to give myself some psychological comfort, I used various analytical frameworks to conduct a comprehensive evaluation, and the conclusion was still quite optimistic. Let's all have a little psychological massage together ???? 1. Fear and Greed Index The current index is 15 (extreme fear), and market panic has lasted for a month. Extreme fear often accompanies a sell-off cycle, intensifying downward pressure. If the index remains below 20, it could trigger further liquidation. However, historical data shows that extreme fear can present a buying opportunity. The current panic may have bottomed out, and a rebound is expected in the short term. This analytical framework indicates that we are currently in a short-term bear market, but it is not a bull market turning into a bear market. 2. Technical Analysis The 50-day/200-day moving average indicator has confirmed a death cross (short-term moving average crossing below long-term moving average), similar to the start of the bear market in 2022. From a technical perspective, this is a strong bear market signal, the trend is reversing, and the downside target is $74,000-$80,000. The RSI (14-day) indicator quickly fell from 70+ (overbought) to 35 (oversold), accompanied by high volatility. The short-term oversold condition suggests a rebound, but there is no strong reversal if it does not break 30. Therefore, from a technical perspective, a bear market has been clearly established, but the oversold condition suggests a possible rebound within 1-2 weeks. 3. Fundamental Analysis ETF inflows: $61.9 billion inflows for the year, but outflows resumed after Q3. Institutions (such as MicroStrategy) are still accumulating shares, but retail panic exacerbated selling pressure. Market liquidity: First, the US government shutdown meant that Treasury funds were not injected into the market. In addition, the divergence over the December interest rate cut intensified, increasing overall uncertainty. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets has risen to 0.6-0.7, influenced by interest rates, inflation, and liquidity; 2025 will primarily see macroeconomic tightening. From a fundamental perspective, we are still in a bull market, or even a long-term bull market. The massive monetary easing has not yet arrived, but the short-term outflows are a market correction. 4. On-chain data analysis Active addresses: down 20% from peak. Trading volume: Plunged 30%. Holding address: The proportion of long-term holdings (>1 year) has risen to 65%, and the UTXO age distribution shows that it is still accumulation, not panic selling. The weakness on-chain indicates that the market is currently bearish, but holding behavior data shows that it is not a complete collapse at present. 5. Market Cycle Analysis The traditional four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halvings has been distorted in 2025, mainly due to the influence of ETFs and the entry of traditional capital. After a six-month reduction, the historical high price should typically be even higher in 19 months, but the ETF's absorption of supply has altered the dynamics, weakening the peak impact. Similar to the late cycle of 2017, it will rebound after a 20% drop. Therefore, the bull market may continue until 2026, and the target price is still 200,000. To summarize Has the market truly entered a bear market? In the short term (January-March), we have entered a bear market correction. Technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic indicators all point to downward pressure, with a target price of 70-80k, a probability of 40%. However, we have not yet entered a full-blown bear market. The behavior of institutional ETFs and on-chain holdings indicates that the fundamentals are still solid and there is no risk of collapse. The cycle may extend to 2026. How will the market develop going forward? There is a 15% probability that the price will pull back further and test the 70,000 level. The probability of continued consolidation and fluctuations, using time to create space, is 50%. The probability of a subsequent rebound, returning to above 100,000, or even reaching a new high, is 35%.Bitcoin's price has dropped by nearly 30%, from 120,000 to 90,000. I've been dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin for three years, but I still haven't timed the market top. I've been regretting lately why I didn't sell at the peak of 120,000. The returns have now fallen significantly. I'm terrified I'll be on a wealth rollercoaster ride. If the four-year cycle theory of the Bitcoin market is not broken... This means I have to wait another 4 years. How many four-year periods are there in a lifetime? So, have we entered a bear market yet? I believe that not only I, but many people also want to know the answer. To avoid being influenced by market noise, and also to give myself some psychological comfort, I used various analytical frameworks to conduct a comprehensive evaluation, and the conclusion was still quite optimistic. Let's all have a little psychological massage together ???? 1. Fear and Greed Index The current index is 15 (extreme fear), and market panic has lasted for a month. Extreme fear often accompanies a sell-off cycle, intensifying downward pressure. If the index remains below 20, it could trigger further liquidation. However, historical data shows that extreme fear can present a buying opportunity. The current panic may have bottomed out, and a rebound is expected in the short term. This analytical framework indicates that we are currently in a short-term bear market, but it is not a bull market turning into a bear market. 2. Technical Analysis The 50-day/200-day moving average indicator has confirmed a death cross (short-term moving average crossing below long-term moving average), similar to the start of the bear market in 2022. From a technical perspective, this is a strong bear market signal, the trend is reversing, and the downside target is $74,000-$80,000. The RSI (14-day) indicator quickly fell from 70+ (overbought) to 35 (oversold), accompanied by high volatility. The short-term oversold condition suggests a rebound, but there is no strong reversal if it does not break 30. Therefore, from a technical perspective, a bear market has been clearly established, but the oversold condition suggests a possible rebound within 1-2 weeks. 3. Fundamental Analysis ETF inflows: $61.9 billion inflows for the year, but outflows resumed after Q3. Institutions (such as MicroStrategy) are still accumulating shares, but retail panic exacerbated selling pressure. Market liquidity: First, the US government shutdown meant that Treasury funds were not injected into the market. In addition, the divergence over the December interest rate cut intensified, increasing overall uncertainty. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets has risen to 0.6-0.7, influenced by interest rates, inflation, and liquidity; 2025 will primarily see macroeconomic tightening. From a fundamental perspective, we are still in a bull market, or even a long-term bull market. The massive monetary easing has not yet arrived, but the short-term outflows are a market correction. 4. On-chain data analysis Active addresses: down 20% from peak. Trading volume: Plunged 30%. Holding address: The proportion of long-term holdings (>1 year) has risen to 65%, and the UTXO age distribution shows that it is still accumulation, not panic selling. The weakness on-chain indicates that the market is currently bearish, but holding behavior data shows that it is not a complete collapse at present. 5. Market Cycle Analysis The traditional four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halvings has been distorted in 2025, mainly due to the influence of ETFs and the entry of traditional capital. After a six-month reduction, the historical high price should typically be even higher in 19 months, but the ETF's absorption of supply has altered the dynamics, weakening the peak impact. Similar to the late cycle of 2017, it will rebound after a 20% drop. Therefore, the bull market may continue until 2026, and the target price is still 200,000. To summarize Has the market truly entered a bear market? In the short term (January-March), we have entered a bear market correction. Technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic indicators all point to downward pressure, with a target price of 70-80k, a probability of 40%. However, we have not yet entered a full-blown bear market. The behavior of institutional ETFs and on-chain holdings indicates that the fundamentals are still solid and there is no risk of collapse. The cycle may extend to 2026. How will the market develop going forward? There is a 15% probability that the price will pull back further and test the 70,000 level. The probability of continued consolidation and fluctuations, using time to create space, is 50%. The probability of a subsequent rebound, returning to above 100,000, or even reaching a new high, is 35%.