MSCI Rule Threatens Billions for Saylor’s Strategy

Michael Saylor’s Strategy faces possible eviction from major stock indexes just as it leans harder on its Bitcoin balance sheet. Now the company is touting decades of dividend coverage from its BTC stash while billions in potential forced index selling hang over the stock.

Strategy’s Index Status Puts Billions in Passive Flows at Risk

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy, now faces the threat of being pushed out of heavyweight equity indices just as the crypto market slides. JPMorgan analysts, cited by Bloomberg, warned that Strategy could lose its place in benchmarks such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100, a move that might force around $2.8 billion of selling from funds that track MSCI’s gauges, with total passive exposure near $9 billion if other providers follow. A decision on MSCI’s proposal is expected by January 15.

At the same time, index providers are rethinking whether companies like Strategy still belong in broad market indexes. MSCI has floated a rule that would exclude firms whose digital asset holdings make up at least half of their total assets, arguing these names increasingly resemble investment vehicles rather than operating companies. Because Strategy’s balance sheet is dominated by Bitcoin, the company sits squarely in the group under review and could be treated more like a fund than a software stock if the change goes through.

Now the market reaction is showing up directly in Strategy’s numbers. The stock has dropped more than 60 percent from its record high in November 2024, erasing the premium that once made it a favored proxy for Bitcoin, even though shares remain up over 1,300 percent since Saylor first shifted the treasury into BTC in 2020. As Bitcoin has fallen more than 30 percent from its October peak, Strategy’s “mNAV” ratio — its enterprise value relative to its Bitcoin holdings — has compressed to just above 1.1, signaling that equity investors are barely valuing anything beyond the coins themselves.

Finally, stress is spilling into Strategy’s newer funding vehicles. Yields on the company’s 10.5 percent notes issued in March have climbed to about 11.5 percent, while a recent euro-denominated preferred share sale has already slipped below its discounted offer price. Higher funding costs and weaker secondary trading underline the risk flagged by JPMorgan: if index exclusion goes ahead, liquidity could thin further, borrowing could become more expensive, and the company’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy would have to operate under tougher market conditions.

Strategy Says Bitcoin Treasury Can Cover Dividends for Decades

Strategy Inc. claims its Bitcoin stash can fund preferred dividends for roughly 71 years at today’s prices. The company’s internal dashboard, shared on X, shows that as long as Bitcoin stays near 87,300 dollars and does not fall meaningfully, the expected cash flow from its holdings would match those annual payouts. In other words, management is signaling that the current balance sheet gives them long runway to service the new income securities.

Strategy BTC Credit Dashboard. Source: Strategy on X

At the same time, the model highlights how little price growth Strategy says it needs. The table lists a Bitcoin “breakeven ARR” of 1.41 percent, meaning any average appreciation above that figure would fully offset yearly dividend obligations. The firm also assumes a much higher 30 percent annual return on Bitcoin and 45 percent volatility, numbers that underscore its view of BTC as a long-term high-growth asset rather than a stable reserve.

Underneath those assumptions sits a large stack of debt and preferred equity. The credit page shows about 8.2 billion dollars of total debt and 7.8 billion dollars of preferreds, for roughly 16 billion dollars in combined obligations. Yet the dashboard gives the capital structure a Bitcoin “credit rating” multiple of 3.5 times, suggesting that, in Strategy’s view, the current BTC position more than covers those liabilities over time.

However, the entire picture depends on Bitcoin holding near or above the modeled level. If BTC were to drop sharply or stay below the assumptions for years, the 71-year coverage figure would shrink and the true breakeven return would rise. So while the table is designed to show comfort around dividends and debt, it also underlines how tightly Strategy’s balance sheet and investor payouts are tied to the path of Bitcoin.