Brandt projects $200K Bitcoin by 2029, challenging bullish forecasts

On November 21, Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) won’t reach $200,000 until Q3 2029, challenging the earlier forecast of crypto leaders aiming for much earlier milestones.

Brandt said that he remains a long-term bull, despite the recent market downturn, viewing the current sell-off as a healthy reset that may open the door for future profits.

Brandt challenged forecasts from figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee, who have predicted that BTC will at least hit $200,000 by the end of the year. Notably, in October, Hayes and Lee reaffirmed their belief in the forecast.

Brandt’s outlook amid market volatility and speculation

Brandt’s assertion conflicts with forecasts made by tech leaders Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, who recently predicted that BTC could reach $1 million by 2030. The target of $1 million is five times higher than Brandt’s prediction, with the time difference being only one quarter. 

In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has been declining from its all-time high of $125,100 on October 5 to $82,522 as of November 21. There has been a decrease of over 20.33% in the last 30 days. Bitcoin is currently 34.61% below its all-time high.

However, Brandt believes that the current sell-off is a beneficial moment. He claimed that “this washout is the best thing that could have happened to Bitcoin.” Other commentators like Rational Root agree with him, pointing out that such falls in the past have made room for new market highs. Historically, such “reset phases” have frequently preceded sharp price hikes.

Brandt expanded his claims by comparing the recent BTC chart price with the soybean market in the 1970s, when BTC’s prices sharply increased and then fell by 50% because supply could not keep up with demand.

According to Brandt, Bitcoin is forming a rare broadening top on the charts. He added that this pattern is famous for tops. Brandt emphasized that in the 1970s, Soybeans formed such a top, then declined 50% in value.

According to Tom Lee, the chairman of BitMine and founder of FundStrat, the major liquidation event on October 10 is mostly to blame for the current sell-off. He said that, historically, unwinds from such events normally take about 8 weeks, and we are now in the 6th week of the liquidation cycles.

Lee’s BitMine is still accumulating Ethereum. For instance, on October 13, BitMine purchased 202,037 ETH worth around $828 million, despite the current market downturn.

The largest Bitcoin buyer in the market, Michael Saylor, also advises against selling. He stated that his business is still growing and would continue to prosper even if the value of Bitcoin falls by 90%. Strategy (MSTR) took advantage of the dip last week and purchased 8,178 BTC, worth $836 million, its largest purchase since July, when it acquired over 21,000 BTC.

The company now holds 649,870 BTC, valued at $54.52 billion at the current market price, representing $6.15 billion in unrealized profit.

Strategy faced accusations of selling off a sizeable amount of its Bitcoin holdings on November 17, which were allegedly valued at over $4.2 billion. TMGM analysis claimed that Large Bitcoin payments from wallets linked to Strategy were the main source of the rumors.

Institutional inflows are changing the BTC ownership structure.

Institutional and corporate buyer inflows are changing the long-term ownership patterns of BTC.

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, original Bitcoin holders are selling during the current market dip, moving assets to traditional finance buyers who are anticipated to hold for the long term. He clarified that the rotation reflects a larger movement away from early cryptocurrency users.

Young Ju added that the shift is moving assets toward institutional liquidity conduits, such as corporate treasuries, pension funds, ETFs, and sovereign funds. He added that the new deposits continue to increase in strength, potentially changing or even shattering the traditional structure of the Bitcoin market cycle, despite the recent price drop.

As of November 20, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had cumulative net inflows of $57.40 billion. 

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