Why a Major Bitcoin Capitulation Seems Unlikely

Halving Narrative Losing Influence

During a conversation on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden said Bitcoin’s behavior is being shaped less by the halving cycle and more by broader global trends — liquidity flows, risk appetite, and institutional adoption. Because of that shift, she believes market cycles no longer follow a predictable four-year pattern and may stretch longer than traders expect.

Opposing Voices See a Storm Forming

Her stance conflicts sharply with more pessimistic projections. Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki has warned that Bitcoin could retrace by 65–70% over the next 24 months, arguing that the current decline marks the early phase of a deeper structural correction rather than a temporary pause in momentum. The result is a sharply divided market where neither side has enough evidence to claim victory.

After the Peak: A Reality Check

Bitcoin’s volatility continues to reflect the uncertainty. The asset climbed to a record $125,100 on October 5, then slid to $80,700 before rebounding modestly to around $85,710. Performance over the past 30 days shows a drop of more than 22%, disappointing traders who expected explosive fourth-quarter strength and even new highs — while outspoken bulls like Arthur Hayes predicted a path toward $250,000.

It’s Not Supposed to Be Perfect

Alden pushed back against both maximal optimism and catastrophic fear, stressing that markets rarely deliver the extreme outcomes humans imagine. In her view, the biggest misconception among traders is the belief that parabolic bull markets are guaranteed. She warned that entitlement — not volatility — is one of the biggest psychological risks in investing.

Slow Recovery, Not Instant Fireworks

Her long-term outlook remains constructive but cautious. Alden anticipates Bitcoin revisiting the $100,000 region in 2026, and believes new all-time highs could appear either that year or in 2027 depending on the global macro landscape. Her thesis is that the next phase of growth is more likely to resemble a steady climb than a sudden moonshot.



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