Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Predicts $80K Support Holds as Fed Policy Shifts

TLDR

• Bitcoin’s price dipped below $90,000 with expectations of touching the low $80,000s, but Arthur Hayes believes $80,000 will hold as strong support
• The Federal Reserve will end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, removing a drain on dollar supply
• U.S. banks increased lending in November, pointing to expanding credit formation
• Markets now price in a 77.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December 9-10 meeting, up from 41.8% last week
• Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $88,187.9 as rate cut expectations helped support crypto recovery from recent losses

Bitcoin’s price movement caught attention as the cryptocurrency traded below $90,000 while facing pressure in recent weeks. The digital asset reached $88,187.9 on Tuesday, showing a modest 0.8% gain as traders responded to changing monetary policy expectations.

Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes shared his outlook on the situation through social media platform X on November 24. Hayes explained that bitcoin could see one more drop into the low $80,000s but expects the $80,000 level to hold as support.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy change plays a key role in Hayes’s analysis. The central bank will end its quantitative tightening program on December 1, 2025. This marks the final decline in the Fed’s balance sheet after months of reducing its holdings.

U.S. banks also increased lending in November. This expansion in credit formation combines with the end of quantitative tightening to create different liquidity conditions in the market.

Rate Cut Expectations Drive Recovery

Bitcoin’s rebound from a seven-month low stems from renewed expectations of a December interest rate cut. At least two Federal Reserve officials expressed support for cutting rates next month.

Market pricing now shows a 77.2% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 9-10 meeting. This probability jumped from just 41.8% last week according to CME Fedwatch data.

Hayes stated he might start buying at current price levels but would save larger purchases until the new year. He views any approach toward $80,000 as an accumulation opportunity based on the shifting liquidity environment.

Crypto Market Shows Mixed Performance

The broader cryptocurrency market displayed varied performance on Tuesday. Ether rose 3.2% to $2,928.08 while XRP jumped 8.7% to $2.2523.

Other cryptocurrencies including Solana, Cardano, and BNB posted gains between 1% and 5%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin increased 3.1% while $TRUMP fell 0.5%.

Bitcoin and crypto prices have faced downward pressure since October. Retail traders grew cautious after a flash crash in early October. U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange traded funds recorded five straight weeks of capital outflows as institutional flows dried up.

Crypto has lagged behind the recovery seen in technology stocks during this period. While crypto typically moves in tandem with tech stocks, the two have decoupled since early October.

Markets now await upcoming U.S. economic data for additional guidance ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. Producer inflation and retail sales figures for September are scheduled for release on Tuesday. The PCE price index data, which serves as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be published on Thursday.

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