Which Fifth Conference Champion Deserves A Playoff Spot?

With one week remaining in the college football regular season, there is still plenty to be decided for the College Football Playoff bracket.

Of the top-25 teams in the sport, eight are set to play each other, hoping to either solidify their playoff position or jump those ahead of them.

And even for the ranked teams not playing an opponent with a number next to their name, key games like Alabama at Auburn, Oregon at Washington, or even Ole Miss at Mississippi could cause chaos ahead of Conference Championship week.

But the most scrutinized aspect of the College Football Playoff picture has been outside of the Power Four conferences.

As an adjustment to last year’s 12-team College Football Playoff picture, there are now guaranteed spots to all five power-conference champions, each earning an automatic bid by winning their league title game.

This marks a shift from last year’s format, in which only the top six conference champions were guaranteed entry before the field was filled with at-large teams.

With no questions about the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 winners earning a spot in the playoff, the debates were expected to center on the fifth conference winner to earn a bid.

For most of the year, the American Athletic Conference was expected to provide this team.

As the leader of the pack has changed over the past few weeks, it has opened the door for the Sun Belt Conference to join the conversation.

If this does not resolve itself in the next two weeks, which Conference Champion deserves a ticket to the dance?

At the start of the year, the University of South Florida seemed to be making the decision easy for the committee.

The Bulls opened the campaign with back-to-back wins over #25 Boise State and on the road at #13 Florida.

They maintained the top spot in the American, with only one loss to Miami, until Week 10 when they suffered their first conference loss of the season.

In a shootout against Memphis, this was not a colossal loss for their resume. However, another loss two weeks later to Navy officially took them out of the top spot in the American.

Memphis took South Florida’s spot in the AP Top 25 after their loss, but they too gave it up after a loss to Tulane in Week 11.

So, with Tulane getting the ranked victory and improving to 7-2 themselves, they now found themselves as the ranked representative for the American.

They have made the most of their time in the national scope, winning their next two games and now only needing to defeat one-win Charlotte this Saturday to complete a ten-win season.

Since South Florida’s fall from the top of the standings, however, the team in first place in conference play was never the team ranked within the top-25.

This would be a position held by North Texas, which has already completed a 10-win campaign.

North Texas only suffered a loss at the hands of South Florida during their early-season run. Due to this loss being by 27 points, and their only notable win being against Navy, the selection committee has yet to respect them, instead giving the top honors to the teams behind them in conference play.

If the Mean Green take care of business against Temple this week, they will have a date with either Tulane or Navy in the Conference Championship.

As it currently stands, this Championship Game would also act as an elimination game for the College Football Playoff.

But why did this conference become the de facto fifth-best conference? Especially when there is another conference leader that is not only undefeated in conference play, but 10-1 overall on the season.

This is the case that James Madison and the Sun Belt Conference are making.

The JMU Dukes have continued to be a force, even after the departure of Curt Cignetti.

In just the second year of Head Coach Bob Chesney, he has created a top-20 team in both points scored per game (35.9) and points allowed per game (16.5).

This scoring production comes on the back of quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who has played all 11 games despite tearing his ACL just nine months before the start of the new year.

Despite his limited offseason, Barnett III has thrown for 2,233 yards and 17 touchdowns on a 60.9% completion percentage.

While the Dukes also lack a notable victory like Tulane and North Texas do, their only being on the road to Louisville by two scores should give them the nod over the American Conference winner.

The overall talent in the American is objectively better than in the Sun Belt in 2025, which is why they would currently reach the postseason over the Dukes.

However, if JMU proves its consistency by ending the year on an 11-game winning streak, it could present enough evidence to sway the voters—especially if it becomes one of at most six programs with only one loss.

Sometimes the decision between fringe teams comes down to who will have the best chance of winning a playoff game, as opposed to who is most deserving of the selection.

In this example, JMU is both. And for whoever the five seed is in this year’s bracket, they may be a less desired team than whoever represents the American Conference.