Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Robotaxi Expansion Accelerates While Sales Drop Globally

TLDR

• Tesla to double Austin robotaxi fleet in December following June launch
• European sales plunged 48.5% in October as EV market grew 26%
• Global deliveries projected to fall 7% in 2025 after 1% decline in 2024
• BYD sold twice as many vehicles as Tesla in Europe during October
• Arizona permit secured for ride-hailing expansion beyond Austin and San Francisco

Tesla’s strategy faces a critical test. CEO Elon Musk pushes autonomous vehicle expansion while traditional car sales decline across major markets.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Musk announced Tuesday the Austin robotaxi fleet will roughly double next month. The service launched in June and currently operates in Austin and San Francisco Bay Area. Safety monitors remain in all vehicles.

Tesla secured an Arizona permit for ride-hailing operations. This expands the company’s autonomous service footprint to three states.

In October, Musk predicted robotaxis would operate without safety drivers in large parts of Austin by year’s end. He also forecast service in eight to ten metropolitan areas. Earlier projections claimed robotaxis would serve half the U.S. population by late 2025.

The exact number of robotaxis Tesla operates remains undisclosed.

European Market Shows Steep Decline

Tesla’s European sales dropped 48.5% in October compared to last year. The broader EV market grew 26% during the same period.

Year-to-date European sales are down 30% for Tesla. Chinese competitor BYD sold 17,470 units in October, more than double Tesla’s volume.

Volkswagen posted 78.2% EV sales growth through September, reaching 522,600 units. That’s triple Tesla’s European sales.

Tesla offers two mass-market models: Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV. The UK market alone features over 150 electric models from various manufacturers. Fifty new EV models will launch next year, none from Tesla.

The company introduced cheaper Model 3 and Model Y variants priced around $5,000 lower than previous versions.

China and U.S. Markets Face Pressure

Tesla deliveries in China hit a three-year low in October, falling 35.8%. Year-to-date China sales decreased 8.4% through October.

New competitors like Xiaomi’s YU7 emerged as Model Y rivals since launching in June. Established brands including Chery also compete for market share.

U.S. sales jumped 18% in September as buyers claimed a $7,500 tax credit before its September 30 expiration. October sales reversed with a 24% drop.

Global vehicle deliveries are expected to decline 7% in 2025 according to Visible Alpha. This follows a 1% decrease in 2024.

Tesla’s Model Y was the world’s best-selling car in 2023. The company has dropped in sales rankings as competitors launched improved EVs at competitive prices.

Sales Projections and Future Plans

Musk told shareholders late last year he expected 20-30% vehicle sales growth in 2025. Tesla retracted that guidance and now ties growth to macroeconomic factors and autonomy feature deployment.

The company shifted focus toward robotaxis and humanoid robots. No new consumer vehicle model appears in development.

Musk’s compensation package requires Tesla to average 1.2 million annual vehicle sales over the next decade. That’s approximately 500,000 fewer than 2024 sales.

The robotaxi industry rebounded after years of setbacks. Tesla, Alphabet’s Waymo, and Amazon’s Zoox are speeding up expansion plans.

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