Robinhood (HOOD) Stock: Company Acquires Exchange to Dominate Prediction Markets

TLDR

• Robinhood and Susquehanna purchasing 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange to control prediction markets infrastructure
• Platform has facilitated 9 billion prediction market contracts since March 2025 launch
• Q3 trading volume hit 2.3 billion event contracts, doubling from previous quarter
• New exchange will launch in 2026 with independent contract listing and clearing capabilities
• Move positions Robinhood to compete directly with current partner Kalshi

Robinhood Markets is making a power play in prediction markets. The company announced Tuesday it will acquire 90% of MIAX Derivatives Exchange alongside Susquehanna International.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

Miami International Holdings will keep the remaining 10% stake. The exchange previously belonged to collapsed crypto firm FTX.

The deal gives Robinhood control over its prediction markets destiny. Instead of relying on partners, the company can list and clear its own contracts.

This matters because prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue stream. Since launching in March with partner Kalshi, the platform has processed 9 billion contracts from over 1 million users.

JB Mackenzie, VP and GM of Futures and International at Robinhood, said the company looked at multiple entry strategies. The MIAX acquisition offers the best path forward for serving both institutional and retail traders.

Volume Growth Shows Strong Demand

The numbers back up Robinhood’s investment thesis. In Q3 alone, customers traded 2.3 billion event contracts. That’s more than double what they traded in Q2.

Prediction markets let traders bet on real-world events. Sports outcomes, election results, even celebrity decisions. The space exploded in 2025 as mainstream interest grew.

Kalshi leads the regulated market with $4.47 billion in 30-day trading volume. The platform got CFTC approval to operate event-based financial contracts and opened the floodgates.

Polymarket, running on crypto rails, has logged $3.58 billion in recent volume. Both platforms rode heavy media coverage throughout the year.

Competition Moving Fast

Robinhood isn’t alone in chasing this opportunity. Crypto.com just launched prediction markets that will integrate with Trump Media. Gemini filed CFTC paperwork in November for its own platform.

Website code suggests Coinbase is building something too. Researcher Jane Manchun Wong spotted evidence of development work in mid-November.

Susquehanna brings liquidity expertise to the partnership. The firm already makes markets on Kalshi and will provide day-one liquidity for the new exchange.

The exchange won’t launch until 2026. But when it does, Robinhood becomes a direct competitor to Kalshi instead of just a distribution partner.

Mackenzie says infrastructure investment will unlock better customer experiences and new product innovation. Robinhood clearly sees prediction markets as central to future growth.

The platform currently channels Kalshi contracts to users. After 2026, it can create proprietary contracts and control the entire value chain. That means more revenue staying in-house.

Over 1 million users have already embraced prediction markets on Robinhood. Quarterly volumes keep doubling. The company is betting that trend continues as it builds out dedicated infrastructure through the MIAX acquisition.

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