Original source: decrypt Original author: Jason Nelson Compiled by: Deloris Saudi Arabia has joined the global quantum computing race. Saudi Aramco, the government-owned energy and chemical company, announced on Monday that it has installed the first quantum computer in Saudi Arabia, further exacerbating the growing security risks to Bitcoin and other blockchain networks. Saudi Aramco says the 200-qubit computer, manufactured by the French neutral atom quantum computing company Pasqal, has been installed at its own Dhahran data center, which is designed for industrial applications such as energy modeling and materials research. Pasqal says this is the most powerful system the company has ever delivered. A qubit is the basic unit of a quantum computer. In a statement, Pasqal CEO Loïc Henrière said, “The deployment of our most powerful quantum computer to date is historic and marks a milestone for the quantum future of the Middle East. Pasqal continues to expand its business, providing practical quantum computing capabilities to the industrial sector.” This move by Saudi Arabia places it among countries such as the United States, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, and Canada—all of which have funded national quantum initiatives aimed at expanding research infrastructure and cultivating the talent pool needed for future fault-tolerant systems. Quantum computing appears to be progressing faster than previously thought. In a blog post on November 13, quantum computing researcher Scott Aaronson (Schlumberger Centennial Professor of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin) wrote, “Given the current astonishing pace of hardware development,” it is “very likely” that a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running Shor’s algorithm will be built before the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Experts warn that once quantum computers become powerful enough to crack encryption systems, they could reveal private keys or forge signatures, allowing attackers to steal funds or compromise privacy protections. In fact, this is an issue that crypto professionals are particularly concerned about. On November 17, at the Devconnect conference in Argentina, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned in a speech about the Ethereum roadmap that quantum computing could threaten the foundation of the crypto field—elliptic curve cryptography. But the question is, is this a serious threat or a blind attempt? Auh, founder of Bolt Technologies, said that as quantum computing technology makes repeated leaps forward, its rapid development forces the security community to take this threat seriously. He stated, "With such a massive investment and influx of funds, a breakthrough is inevitable. Although no one knows the exact timing, the threat is no longer just theoretical. While current technology cannot yet crack elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) or the RSA algorithm, progress has been steadily advancing." Auh stated that national-level investment motivations are not limited to the field of cryptanalysis. “Quantum computing is the first technology that could potentially become a global digital weapon that is not controlled by any political system,” he noted. However, this research still has a long way to go before it can crack Bitcoin. According to research scientist Ian McCormack, a 200-qubit system is small in scale for practical applications because current machines are limited by noise and short coherence time, resulting in a limited number of operations that can be performed. “200 qubits are enough for some interesting experiments and demonstrations—provided the qubits are of high enough quality, but even such a small number is difficult to achieve. However, this is far from sufficient for error correction calculations, which is exactly the kind of computational power required to execute Shor's Algorithm,” he explained, referring to the quantum algorithm used to solve for the prime factorization of integers. In September, researchers at Caltech unveiled a neutral atom system with 6,000 qubits. However, even machines of this size are still used for research, simulation, and algorithm development, rather than for attacking cryptography. "What you need is a very long coherence time, much longer than your operation duration," says Eli Bataille, a graduate student at Caltech. "If your operation duration is one microsecond and your coherence time is one second, that means you can perform about one million operations." Researchers say that thousands of error-correcting logical qubits would be needed to threaten modern cryptography, which is equivalent to millions of physical qubits. While the Pasqal system has not changed the current security of blockchains, it has rekindled attention to a long-standing risk known as "Q-day," the moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to derive private keys from public keys and forge digital signatures. Worryingly, this capability could not only undermine the cryptography used in Bitcoin, but also destroy many of the security systems that underpin the global economy. “What quantum computers can do—and that’s relevant to Bitcoin—is forge the digital signatures currently used by Bitcoin,” said Justin Taylor, research partner at the Andreessen Horowitz Foundation and associate professor at Georgetown University. “Someone with a quantum computer could authorize a transaction that would take all the Bitcoin in your account without your authorization. That’s the scariest part.” Even today's most advanced processors, such as the 200-qubit Pasqal machine and Google's 105-qubit Willow chip, are still far below the attack threshold. “There is a fairly high probability (over 5%) that quantum computing will pose a significant, even life-or-death, long-term risk to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” noted Christopher Peckter, professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Michigan. “But in the next few years, it is unlikely to pose a real risk; quantum computing technology is still a long way from threatening modern cryptography.” Compared to the distant threat of quantum computing, the immediate challenges facing Bitcoin are far more severe. The market continues to deteriorate. Last Friday, the price of Bitcoin plummeted again, falling to $82,000. Although it has recovered slightly, it has only returned to $87,000, a drop of nearly 30% from its all-time high. More concerning is that, based on market reaction, this decline may continue. Capital is flowing out. Looking at ETFs, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of $3.5 billion in November, the largest single-day outflow since February. "This indicates that institutional investors have stopped allocating to Bitcoin," said Marcus Thilan, founder and CEO of 10X Research. "ETF institutions have turned to selling, and as long as they continue to sell, I think it will be difficult for the market to sustain an upward trend or rebound." The retreat of crypto-owned companies heavily reliant on cryptocurrency value growth is even more pronounced. According to the Financial Times, as the cryptocurrency market suffers a severe downturn, companies that had heavily stockpiled crypto assets to bolster their coffers are facing a double blow from both stock and cryptocurrency prices. To support their plummeting share prices, these crypto-owned companies are being forced to sell off their digital token holdings. North Carolina-based Ethereum holder FG Nexus recently sold approximately $41.5 million worth of tokens to fund its stock buyback program. The company's market capitalization is $104 million, less than its $116 million worth of crypto assets. Florida-based life sciences company ETHZilla also sold approximately $40 million worth of tokens for stock buybacks. Retail investors are also adopting a defensive stance. Data released by Santiment indicates that since November 11th, the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoins has increased by 0.47% (91 wallets). Meanwhile, the number of small wallets (especially those holding 0.1 Bitcoins or less) has been decreasing. Of course, there is some optimism, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is showing a more dovish stance. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 84.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by January next year is 66.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 22.6%. With various factors intertwined, market forecasting is becoming increasingly difficult. However, judging from traders' opinions, the general consensus is that the market will enter a consolidation period, with $90,000 becoming a key level. Beimnet Abebe, head of credit trading at Galaxy Digital, believes the top of this cycle has likely been established. Prices are unlikely to return to the $120,000-$125,000 range in the short term. Currently, the $90,000 level is likely to act as strong resistance. Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bitcoin's first resistance level to watch is the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near $88,000. This level has been acting as resistance for price increases since Monday, limiting gains. The next resistance level to watch is in the $98,000–$99,000 range, an area that previously formed intraday lows multiple times earlier this month and in June. Furthermore, the most critical support level is around $83,680, where the 100-week SMA intersects with the macro bullish trendline. A break below this level would send a clear risk signal, confirming the recent bearish reversal and potentially leading to a deeper decline. The next support level is around $74,500, where selling pressure subsided in early April, paving the way for a subsequent price rebound. Delphi Digital analyst that1618guy offered two possibilities: in an optimistic scenario, the market could break through $103,500 after completing its correction, while in a pessimistic scenario, the rebound could be blocked in the $95,000 to $99,000 range, before falling to around $75,000. Even Arthur Hayes, who is usually bullish on Bitcoin, has deviated from his usual stance, believing that the price of Bitcoin will remain below $90,000 and may retest the effective support level of $80,000. Even more pessimistic crypto analyst @ali_charts suggested that key support levels might be at $75,740, $56,160, and $52,820. Of course, there are still institutions with optimistic views, but they are more focused on ETH. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua said on social media today: "From the perspective of investment research data, ETH has been shorted on a large scale by multiple platforms and institutions. I believe that after surviving the most difficult November, it may usher in a short squeeze. Compared with ETH 4 years ago, under the completely different level of favorable environment of stablecoins/ETFs/DAT/policies, the price of ETH is seriously undervalued."Original source: decrypt Original author: Jason Nelson Compiled by: Deloris Saudi Arabia has joined the global quantum computing race. Saudi Aramco, the government-owned energy and chemical company, announced on Monday that it has installed the first quantum computer in Saudi Arabia, further exacerbating the growing security risks to Bitcoin and other blockchain networks. Saudi Aramco says the 200-qubit computer, manufactured by the French neutral atom quantum computing company Pasqal, has been installed at its own Dhahran data center, which is designed for industrial applications such as energy modeling and materials research. Pasqal says this is the most powerful system the company has ever delivered. A qubit is the basic unit of a quantum computer. In a statement, Pasqal CEO Loïc Henrière said, “The deployment of our most powerful quantum computer to date is historic and marks a milestone for the quantum future of the Middle East. Pasqal continues to expand its business, providing practical quantum computing capabilities to the industrial sector.” This move by Saudi Arabia places it among countries such as the United States, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, and Canada—all of which have funded national quantum initiatives aimed at expanding research infrastructure and cultivating the talent pool needed for future fault-tolerant systems. Quantum computing appears to be progressing faster than previously thought. In a blog post on November 13, quantum computing researcher Scott Aaronson (Schlumberger Centennial Professor of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin) wrote, “Given the current astonishing pace of hardware development,” it is “very likely” that a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of running Shor’s algorithm will be built before the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Experts warn that once quantum computers become powerful enough to crack encryption systems, they could reveal private keys or forge signatures, allowing attackers to steal funds or compromise privacy protections. In fact, this is an issue that crypto professionals are particularly concerned about. On November 17, at the Devconnect conference in Argentina, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned in a speech about the Ethereum roadmap that quantum computing could threaten the foundation of the crypto field—elliptic curve cryptography. But the question is, is this a serious threat or a blind attempt? Auh, founder of Bolt Technologies, said that as quantum computing technology makes repeated leaps forward, its rapid development forces the security community to take this threat seriously. He stated, "With such a massive investment and influx of funds, a breakthrough is inevitable. Although no one knows the exact timing, the threat is no longer just theoretical. While current technology cannot yet crack elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) or the RSA algorithm, progress has been steadily advancing." Auh stated that national-level investment motivations are not limited to the field of cryptanalysis. “Quantum computing is the first technology that could potentially become a global digital weapon that is not controlled by any political system,” he noted. However, this research still has a long way to go before it can crack Bitcoin. According to research scientist Ian McCormack, a 200-qubit system is small in scale for practical applications because current machines are limited by noise and short coherence time, resulting in a limited number of operations that can be performed. “200 qubits are enough for some interesting experiments and demonstrations—provided the qubits are of high enough quality, but even such a small number is difficult to achieve. However, this is far from sufficient for error correction calculations, which is exactly the kind of computational power required to execute Shor's Algorithm,” he explained, referring to the quantum algorithm used to solve for the prime factorization of integers. In September, researchers at Caltech unveiled a neutral atom system with 6,000 qubits. However, even machines of this size are still used for research, simulation, and algorithm development, rather than for attacking cryptography. "What you need is a very long coherence time, much longer than your operation duration," says Eli Bataille, a graduate student at Caltech. "If your operation duration is one microsecond and your coherence time is one second, that means you can perform about one million operations." Researchers say that thousands of error-correcting logical qubits would be needed to threaten modern cryptography, which is equivalent to millions of physical qubits. While the Pasqal system has not changed the current security of blockchains, it has rekindled attention to a long-standing risk known as "Q-day," the moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to derive private keys from public keys and forge digital signatures. Worryingly, this capability could not only undermine the cryptography used in Bitcoin, but also destroy many of the security systems that underpin the global economy. “What quantum computers can do—and that’s relevant to Bitcoin—is forge the digital signatures currently used by Bitcoin,” said Justin Taylor, research partner at the Andreessen Horowitz Foundation and associate professor at Georgetown University. “Someone with a quantum computer could authorize a transaction that would take all the Bitcoin in your account without your authorization. That’s the scariest part.” Even today's most advanced processors, such as the 200-qubit Pasqal machine and Google's 105-qubit Willow chip, are still far below the attack threshold. “There is a fairly high probability (over 5%) that quantum computing will pose a significant, even life-or-death, long-term risk to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” noted Christopher Peckter, professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Michigan. “But in the next few years, it is unlikely to pose a real risk; quantum computing technology is still a long way from threatening modern cryptography.” Compared to the distant threat of quantum computing, the immediate challenges facing Bitcoin are far more severe. The market continues to deteriorate. Last Friday, the price of Bitcoin plummeted again, falling to $82,000. Although it has recovered slightly, it has only returned to $87,000, a drop of nearly 30% from its all-time high. More concerning is that, based on market reaction, this decline may continue. Capital is flowing out. Looking at ETFs, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of $3.5 billion in November, the largest single-day outflow since February. "This indicates that institutional investors have stopped allocating to Bitcoin," said Marcus Thilan, founder and CEO of 10X Research. "ETF institutions have turned to selling, and as long as they continue to sell, I think it will be difficult for the market to sustain an upward trend or rebound." The retreat of crypto-owned companies heavily reliant on cryptocurrency value growth is even more pronounced. According to the Financial Times, as the cryptocurrency market suffers a severe downturn, companies that had heavily stockpiled crypto assets to bolster their coffers are facing a double blow from both stock and cryptocurrency prices. To support their plummeting share prices, these crypto-owned companies are being forced to sell off their digital token holdings. North Carolina-based Ethereum holder FG Nexus recently sold approximately $41.5 million worth of tokens to fund its stock buyback program. The company's market capitalization is $104 million, less than its $116 million worth of crypto assets. Florida-based life sciences company ETHZilla also sold approximately $40 million worth of tokens for stock buybacks. Retail investors are also adopting a defensive stance. Data released by Santiment indicates that since November 11th, the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoins has increased by 0.47% (91 wallets). Meanwhile, the number of small wallets (especially those holding 0.1 Bitcoins or less) has been decreasing. Of course, there is some optimism, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is showing a more dovish stance. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 84.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by January next year is 66.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 22.6%. With various factors intertwined, market forecasting is becoming increasingly difficult. However, judging from traders' opinions, the general consensus is that the market will enter a consolidation period, with $90,000 becoming a key level. Beimnet Abebe, head of credit trading at Galaxy Digital, believes the top of this cycle has likely been established. Prices are unlikely to return to the $120,000-$125,000 range in the short term. Currently, the $90,000 level is likely to act as strong resistance. Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bitcoin's first resistance level to watch is the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near $88,000. This level has been acting as resistance for price increases since Monday, limiting gains. The next resistance level to watch is in the $98,000–$99,000 range, an area that previously formed intraday lows multiple times earlier this month and in June. Furthermore, the most critical support level is around $83,680, where the 100-week SMA intersects with the macro bullish trendline. A break below this level would send a clear risk signal, confirming the recent bearish reversal and potentially leading to a deeper decline. The next support level is around $74,500, where selling pressure subsided in early April, paving the way for a subsequent price rebound. Delphi Digital analyst that1618guy offered two possibilities: in an optimistic scenario, the market could break through $103,500 after completing its correction, while in a pessimistic scenario, the rebound could be blocked in the $95,000 to $99,000 range, before falling to around $75,000. Even Arthur Hayes, who is usually bullish on Bitcoin, has deviated from his usual stance, believing that the price of Bitcoin will remain below $90,000 and may retest the effective support level of $80,000. Even more pessimistic crypto analyst @ali_charts suggested that key support levels might be at $75,740, $56,160, and $52,820. Of course, there are still institutions with optimistic views, but they are more focused on ETH. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua said on social media today: "From the perspective of investment research data, ETH has been shorted on a large scale by multiple platforms and institutions. I believe that after surviving the most difficult November, it may usher in a short squeeze. Compared with ETH 4 years ago, under the completely different level of favorable environment of stablecoins/ETFs/DAT/policies, the price of ETH is seriously undervalued."