Tom Lee Backs Off $250K Bitcoin Call But Still Sees $100,000+ in Q4

TLDR

• Tom Lee has softened his $250,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast, now calling it just a “maybe” that BTC reaches a new all-time high by December 31
• Lee still expects Bitcoin to rise above $100,000 before year-end, maintaining some bullish sentiment despite the revised outlook
• Bitcoin has declined since October 10 following a $19 billion crypto market liquidation triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement on Chinese goods
• Lee notes Bitcoin typically makes most of its annual gains in just 10 trading days, suggesting a rapid price move could still occur
• His prediction record is mixed, with his 2018 call for $125,000 by 2022 taking three extra years to materialize, though some earlier forecasts proved accurate

Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, has walked back his bold $250,000 Bitcoin price target for 2025. During a Wednesday interview with CNBC, Lee described reaching a new all-time high by year-end as only a “maybe.”

Lee’s original prediction stood as one of the most bullish in the industry. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned in October that “crazy stuff” would need to happen for Bitcoin to reach that level.

Bitcoin currently trades at $91,353, down 1.85% over the past 12 months. The cryptocurrency hit its all-time high of $125,100 in October but has declined since then.

Despite lowering his target, Lee believes Bitcoin’s strongest days may still arrive before 2025 ends. He pointed to Bitcoin’s pattern of making most annual gains during a small number of trading sessions.

The 10-Day Trading Pattern

Lee explained that Bitcoin typically “makes its move” in just 10 days each year. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley echoed this view in a February 2024 post, noting that missing Bitcoin’s best 10 days historically means missing nearly all returns.

Data from 2024 supports this pattern. Bitcoin’s strongest 10 trading days delivered a combined 52% return. The remaining 355 days generated an average return of negative 15%.

This pattern suggests rapid price movements can occur with little warning. Lee’s statement about Bitcoin’s “best days” happening before year-end reflects this historical behavior.

Market Pressures and Recent Decline

Bitcoin entered a downtrend after October 10. A $19 billion liquidation hit the crypto market following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

The cryptocurrency only reclaimed the $90,000 level on Wednesday. It spent six consecutive days below that threshold before the recovery.

November typically ranks as Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. However, 2024 has not followed this historical pattern.

Lee’s Track Record on Bitcoin Predictions

Lee’s forecasting history shows mixed results. In January 2018, he predicted Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022. The cryptocurrency took three additional years to hit that level, achieving it only in October 2024.

Some of Lee’s earlier calls proved more accurate. In July 2017, he projected Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022 under a base scenario. A more bullish outlook suggested $55,000 over the same timeframe.

Bitcoin reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap. These predictions came true ahead of Lee’s projected timeline.

Current Market Conditions

Economist Timothy Peterson said Monday that Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in or will occur this week. This assessment suggests the recent decline could be nearing an end.

With 35 days remaining until the end of 2025, Bitcoin would need to gain roughly 9% to surpass $100,000. Reaching the October all-time high of $125,100 would require a 37% increase from current levels.

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