Bitcoin Options Market Braces for a Major Reset as Traders Split on Direction

The clash of expectations is building into Friday’s expiry, which will settle one of the largest options batches of the year.

Two Camps, One Expiry

Unlike typical months, where directional consensus becomes clear in the final days before settlement, November is closing with an unusually polarized board.

On one side, traders are stacking downside protection beneath $85,000, preparing for continued fear-driven selling. On the other, a wave of longer-dated calls is accumulating around $102,000–$105,000, targeting renewed strength once the expiry dust settles.

There is little in between — very few bets are priced around current levels.

Why the Stakes Are Higher This Time

Options traders aren’t responding to public sentiment — they’re responding to liquidity risk. When Bitcoin dropped into the $80,000 zone last week, the fear wasn’t the price itself but the speed of the move. Liquidations and funding swings pushed volatility to a six-month high, forcing traders to pick a side rather than stay exposed in the middle.

That behavior caused a surge in derivatives activity rather than withdrawals.
Deribit — the dominant venue for crypto options — now carries $43B in open interest, the most contracts ever held on the exchange.

Expiry Doesn’t Say Where BTC Will Go — But It Will Decide Who Gets Hurt

Roughly $13.74B in Bitcoin contracts will expire on November 28. The maximum-pain price sits at $100,000, but Deribit traders aren’t betting on a last-minute squeeze to get there. Only about 22% of all positions are currently profitable, and most of the rest appear content to let contracts expire rather than force price drama.

That makes this expiry less about manipulation and more about waiting for the reset. Once the contracts roll off, capital opens up again — and the next major move becomes possible.

ETH faces its own expiry event worth $1.73B, dominated by calls rather than puts, with a max-pain level of $3,400 while spot trades near $3,007. Unlike BTC, ETH’s options board shows more confidence in the upside — though the move may depend on Bitcoin’s path first.

Sentiment Says Fear — Positioning Says Something Else

Bitcoin’s fear index remains low at 22, barely up from 15.

But open interest across the entire crypto market has climbed back to $30.8B — not something that happens when traders are exiting the space.

There is one consistent theme in the data:

Nobody wants to gamble on the midpoint. Either this expiry clears the way for relief… or it marks the start of a deeper drawdown.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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