MP Materials (MP) Stock: Trading Higher on Wall Street Upgrades

TLDR

• Shares rose 3.4% to $60.17 Wednesday with reduced trading volume
• Consensus rating stands at “Moderate Buy” with $78.73 average target price
• Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Jefferies upgraded ratings recently
• Q3 loss of $0.10 per share beat estimates despite 14.9% revenue decline
• Insiders sold $27.8M in shares while institutions increased positions

MP Materials shares climbed 3.4% Wednesday, closing at $60.17 as Wall Street analysts turned more bullish on the rare-earth metals producer. Trading volume came in lighter than normal at 5.85 million shares, down 46% from the daily average.

MP Materials Corp., MP

The rally follows a string of analyst upgrades over recent months. Jefferies lifted its rating to buy from hold in August with an $80 price target. BMO Capital upgraded to outperform, though it lowered its target slightly to $75 from $76.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating. Deutsche Bank also moved to buy from hold, setting a $77 target. The upgrades weren’t universal. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock to sell in November.

Fifteen analysts now cover MP Materials. The breakdown shows twelve buy ratings, one strong buy, one hold, and one sell. The consensus target of $78.73 implies roughly 30% upside from current levels. The highest target of $112 suggests even more room to run.

Defense Priorities Drive Analyst Optimism

Analysts point to MP’s strategic value in U.S. defense and national security. The company operates the only active rare-earth mine in America at its Mountain Pass facility in California. These materials are essential for military applications, electric vehicles, and clean energy technology.

MP is building out vertical integration from mining through magnet production. This positions the company to capture more value across the supply chain. Analysts expect the business to reach profitability in fiscal 2026.

The company reported third quarter results in early November. MP lost 10 cents per share, beating the expected 15-cent loss. Revenue totaled $53.55 million, above estimates but down 14.9% year-over-year.

The numbers show MP is still burning cash. Net margin was negative 50.6%. Return on equity came in at negative 7.7%. Full-year consensus calls for a 19-cent per share loss.

Mixed Signals from Insiders and Institutions

Company executives sold shares in recent months. COO Michael Rosenthal unloaded 150,000 shares in August at $72.02 each for $10.8 million. CEO James Litinsky sold 248,411 shares in November at $63.86 for nearly $16 million.

The sales totaled $27.8 million in the quarter. However, insiders still own 12.6% of the company. Rosenthal’s sale reduced his stake by 10.5%. Litinsky’s represented just 1.8% of his holdings.

Institutional investors moved the other direction. Rockefeller Capital Management increased its position 132.7% in the second quarter. Several funds opened new positions. Institutions now hold 52.55% of outstanding shares.

The stock carries a market cap of $10.66 billion. It trades above its 200-day moving average of $54.86 but below its 50-day average of $68.33. With a beta of 2.26, MP moves more than twice as much as the broader market.

The balance sheet shows solid liquidity. Current ratio sits at 8.05 with a quick ratio of 7.51. Debt-to-equity is 0.47, giving the company financial flexibility as it scales operations.

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