A Hidden Thanksgiving Pattern Could Hit Crypto Again Next Week

The crypto market is showing its first meaningful recovery after a harsh November sell-off, and several metrics now resemble the same conditions seen around Thanksgiving in both 2022 and 2023. 

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,000 level, ETH is back above $3,000, and the wider market has returned to a cautious green. This bounce comes as traders enter a long US holiday weekend that has historically set the tone for December.

Market Indicators Turn Positive After Weeks of Fear

Fear and Greed Index data shows sentiment improving from 11 last week to 22 today, although it remains in “Extreme Fear.” 

This shift aligns with a steady rise in average crypto RSI, which climbed from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today. The reading signals growing strength after deep oversold conditions earlier in the month.

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Momentum also flipped. The normalized MACD across major assets has turned positive for the first time since early November. 

About 82% of tracked cryptocurrencies now show positive trend momentum. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana appear in the bullish zone of CoinMarketCap’s MACD heatmap.

Price action supports this shift. Bitcoin is up 6% on the week. Ethereum has gained nearly 8%. Solana climbed almost 8% in the same period. 

The market cap has grown to $3.21 trillion, rising 1.1% over the last 24 hours.

A Familiar Post-Thanksgiving Setup Has Emerged

The current recovery mirrors a structure seen twice before. In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered Thanksgiving after a sharp drawdown and then stabilized into December.

In 2022, Bitcoin fell to near $16,000 following the FTX collapse. By Thanksgiving, selling pressure had exhausted, and the market traded sideways into Christmas. 

It was a deep bear consolidation phase rather than a rally.

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In 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving at $37,000 after a steep September-October correction. Strong ETF expectations and improving liquidity conditions pushed BTC to $43,600 by Christmas. It was a classic early-bull December rally.

This year, the pattern again repeats one familiar element: the November crash came early, and by Thanksgiving, selling momentum had eased. 

Bitcoin’s 90-day Taker CVD has shifted from persistent sell dominance to neutral, signalling that aggressive sellers have stepped back. Funding rates and leverage data support the same interpretation.

Liquidity Damage Still Shapes the Current Cycle

BitMine chairman Tom Lee described the market as “limping” after the October 10 liquidation shock. 

He said market makers were forced to shrink their balance sheets, weakening market depth across exchanges. That fragility persisted through November.

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However, Lee also argued that Bitcoin tends to make its biggest moves in short bursts when liquidity recovers. He expects a strong December rally if the Federal Reserve signals a softer stance.

On-chain data aligns with this view. Nexo collateral figures show users still prefer borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it. 

BTC makes up more than 53% of all collateral on the platform. This behavior suppresses immediate sell pressure, helping stabilize spot markets. But it also adds hidden leverage that could amplify future volatility.

We May Be Entering a Two-Year Holiday Pattern

Three factors now look similar to the post-Thanksgiving conditions of 2022 and 2023:

• Seller exhaustion: Taker CVD shifting to neutral signals the end of forced selling for now.
• Momentum recovery: MACD and RSI metrics have reversed sharply after bottoming earlier in November.
• Liquidity stabilization: Market makers are still wounded, but volatility has cooled, and ETF outflows have slowed.

If this pattern continues, December could produce one of two outcomes based on the last two years:

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• A sideways consolidation like 2022 if liquidity remains thin.
• A short, sharp rally like 2023 if macro conditions turn supportive.

The deciding factor will likely be the Federal Reserve’s tone in early December and the behavior of Bitcoin ETF flows. Thin liquidity means even moderate inflows could move prices quickly.

December May Deliver a Large Move in Either Direction

The market has entered a transition phase rather than a clear trend. Sentiment is still extremely fearful, but price and momentum indicators show recovery. 

Bitcoin’s position above $91,000 suggests buyers are willing to defend key levels, yet order-book depth remains weak.

With selling pressure fading and technical momentum rising, the environment now resembles the same post-Thanksgiving setups that marked the last two end-of-year cycles. 

If the pattern holds, December will not be flat. It will likely bring a decisive move as liquidity conditions shift.

The direction, however, will depend less on crypto narratives and more on macro signals and ETF demand in the coming weeks.