New XRP Rail Scenario Breaks Down How Ripple Could Hit Seven Trillion

TLDR:

• Cunningham’s model projects Ripple reaching trillions if XRP becomes core U.S. monetary settlement infrastructure.
• The breakdown assumes XRP at $250 and Ripple controlling 17 billion tokens after structural adjustments.
• Conservative scenarios apply large discounts due to political and concentration risk in Ripple’s XRP stack.
• Extreme cases show valuations above $7 trillion if XRPL and RLUSD run global dollar settlement rails.

Ripple’s potential valuation sparked renewed attention after a detailed breakdown explored a scenario tying the company to a new U.S. monetary infrastructure. The analysis shared on X, analysts Rob Cunningham examined how Ripple’s holdings could scale under a proposed Clarity Act framework. 

He assessed a future where XRP trades at $250 and the XRPL supports global settlement activity. His model presented multi-trillion-dollar outcomes anchored in Ripple’s post-money valuation and its XRP exposure.

Ripple Valuation Model Draws Industry Attention

Cunningham began with Ripple’s most recent $40 billion valuation from a strategic round involving Fortress, Citadel, Pantera, Galaxy, Brevan, and Marshall Wace. He then outlined a scenario assuming explicit regulatory clarity, full Treasury support, and XRPL becoming core settlement rails. 

His breakdown noted that XRP trades near $2.2 today with circulating supply at roughly 60.25 billion tokens, according to market data referenced in the thread.

He modeled XRP rising to $250 and Ripple controlling 17 billion tokens after adjustments tied to escrow and special-purpose structures.

He calculated that this stack alone would equal $4.25 trillion at the assumed price point. He compared this mark-to-market figure to the current market caps of Visa and Mastercard to add context around scale.

The analysis described valuation bands where markets discount Ripple’s concentrated XRP exposure. 

In the conservative case, Cunningham applied a 60–80 percent cut to the XRP holdings due to political risk and potential structural controls. His conservative range placed Ripple between $1.3 trillion and $2.7 trillion, including payments and stablecoin operations.

Extreme Scenario Pushes Ripple Toward Global Utility Status

Cunningham also modeled an “infrastructure super-giant” band where markets credit Ripple with 50–70 percent of the XRP value.

This placed the company between $3.1 trillion and $4.5 trillion once payments, treasury, and stablecoin activity were added. He described this range as representing a world where XRPL and RLUSD manage a large share of global settlement flows.

His final scenario extended the model to an extreme case where XRPL functions like a combined SWIFT, CHIPS, Fedwire, and global card network. 

He projected Ripple at $4.4 trillion to more than $7 trillion if markets treat the company as a core monetary utility. He noted that such scale would likely trigger structural or governance adjustments due to national security and systemic risk.

Cunningham emphasized that the breakdown was a thought exercise and not investment guidance. He pointed to variables such as governance mandates, distribution rules, and Ripple’s actual XRP holdings as factors affecting any real valuation.

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