Bitcoin and Global Markets Amid Macro Data and Fed Expectations

With the arrival of December, financial markets and the crypto sector are facing one of the most crucial weeks of the year. A dense sequence of macroeconomic data and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next moves are creating an atmosphere of anticipation and volatility, which could mark a turning point for assets like bitcoin and the entire U.S. stock sector.

According to the analysis by Chloe, a researcher at HTX Research, the data to be released in the coming days will have a direct impact on the expectations of rate cuts by the Fed at the December meeting, becoming the main catalyst for risk sentiment in both equities and digital assets.

Key Data: The Fate of Interest Rates is Decided This Week

Manufacturing and Services PMI: Mixed Signals

The first significant data point is the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November. The American manufacturing sector has been in contraction since March, with the latest reading at 48.7. Both the sub-index for new orders and employment remain below the 50 mark, indicating uncertainty due to tariffs and weak global demand.

Conversely, the services PMI remains in moderate expansion (52.4), but the price sub-index stays elevated near 70. This indicates that inflationary pressures now primarily stem from domestic services rather than imports. If services prove to be resilient, the more restrictive positions within the Fed would be strengthened; a decline towards 50 or below would make a rate cut in December almost inevitable.

Employment and Inflation: The Decisive Factors

The true balance remains the labor market. With the official October data canceled and November’s postponed until after the Fed meeting, attention is focused on the ADP Employment Report for the private sector. In October, the ADP exceeded expectations with 42,000 new jobs. A November figure above forecasts would weaken the case for an immediate easing; conversely, a weak reading would strengthen the need for a more accommodative policy.

Also worth monitoring is the Challenger report on layoffs, which recorded 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest level in the past 22 years. A further increase in November could raise concerns about a rapid deterioration in the U.S. labor market.

The focus on Friday will be on the PCE inflation data and personal spending, the most anticipated of the week. Estimates point to a slight increase in headline inflation from 2.7% to 2.8%, with the core stable at 2.9%. If inflation remains close to 3%, the Fed would maintain a cautious approach to cuts; a downside surprise, however, would provide relief to the markets.

Sentiment and Positioning: Between Caution and Expectations

US Stocks: The “Santa Rally” Hinges on Data

In the equity sector, volatility has decreased and market breadth has risen, indicating that systemic selling exhausted itself by mid-November. According to institutional positioning models, a shift from net sales to approximately $4.7 billion in net purchases is expected in December. The traditional “Santa Rally” is therefore not ruled out, but its ignition will depend on the confirmation of a rate-cutting path.

Bitcoin: Fragile Rebound and Looming Volatility

In the crypto world, Bitcoin has climbed back above 85K after a drawdown of nearly 30% from the October peak, but sentiment remains fragile due to low liquidity. ETFs continue to record slight outflows, while the Coinbase premium remains weak, indicating caution among institutional investors.

The options markets exhibit a classic risk-averse stance: short-term implied volatility is significantly higher than long-term, and the 25-delta put skew is negative across all maturities. Investors continue to pay for downside protection, reflecting expectations of potential volatility spikes in the short term.

Outlook: Towards a Turning Point?

Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin and Digital Assets

The crypto market is in a delicate phase, with unclear fundamental prospects but signs of a possible bottom formation. If U.S. macro data were to show a combination of slowing growth without recession and declining inflation, bitcoin and major digital assets could initiate a natural recovery, with a rapid compression of implied volatility and a return of short-vol strategies.

On the contrary, better-than-expected data on manufacturing, employment, or inflation that dampen rate cut expectations could trigger a new decline, especially in a context of reduced liquidity due to the holidays.

Strategies and Key Levels

In this scenario, betting on heavily unbalanced positions involves high risks. The market structure suggests a gradual accumulation behavior in the lower ranges, while the high short-term implied volatility offers hedging opportunities. The support level between 80K and 82K remains crucial, but a true trend reversal will depend on clearer signals from this week’s macro data.

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*This article is based solely on information contained in the HTX DeepThink source and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to purchase financial products in any way.*