USD Price Still Under Pressure

The Bitcoin price in USD is still under significant pressure. 

After closing the month of November above 91,000 USD, yesterday it first fell below 90,000 USD and then, for a brief moment, even below 84,000 USD. 

Today it has slightly recovered, but remains under significant pressure. 

The Causes of the Struggle

The fact is that, in theory, yesterday would have been a good time for a rebound. 

In fact, the Dollar Index has fallen, dropping from 99.5 points at the end of November to just over 99 points, and this could have favored a rise in the price of Bitcoin. 

Instead, the exact opposite occurred, due to a genuine anomaly. 

However, this anomaly originates from afar and is not directly related to Bitcoin or the crypto markets. 

The underlying issue is the U.S. government shutdown. Although it ended three weeks ago, its consequences are still being felt. 

According to the official data from the Fed, at the end of September before the start of the shutdown, there were just over 800 billion dollars deposited in government accounts. 

During the shutdown, the US government continued to collect dollars, but without the ability to spend them, except to a minimal extent. As a result, in just four weeks, deposits soared to over 950 billion dollars, the highest level since 2021. 

Once the shutdown ended, this figure began to decline, but very slowly. During the first week after the end of the shutdown, it decreased by only $12 billion, and during the second week, it fell to just over $900 billion. The data for the third week will only be available late Thursday evening. 

All this has caused a minor liquidity crisis that negatively impacted all American markets, including the stock markets, at least until the second decade of November, while now it is primarily the crypto markets that are suffering. 

The Silver Problem

Yesterday, it seemed that with the decline of the Dollar Index, the Bitcoin price in USD might bounce back a bit. 

Instead, due to the fact that the minor liquidity crisis caused by the shutdown is not yet fully resolved, the rebound has not occurred, particularly because of silver. 

Starting from Monday, November 24, the price of silver began to rise. 

Something similar had already occurred starting from the end of September, and it ended in mid-October with a mini-speculative bubble bursting on the 17th of the same month. 

At that time, the rally had started from $44 per ounce and concluded with a new all-time high at $52.5 per ounce. 

This time, however, the mini-bubble began to inflate starting from the $50 per ounce mark, and it became particularly evident once it surpassed $56. 

Yesterday, the price of gold reached a new all-time high at $58.5 per ounce, and this minor rally drained liquidity from other markets, particularly from Bitcoin. 

For this reason, the rebound in the BTC price expected yesterday did not occur. 

Today, however, it seems that this recent silver mini-speculative bubble is bursting, as happened on October 17 for the previous one. 

Bitcoin Price Predictions

In theory, if the liquidity exiting the silver market were to flow into the Bitcoin market, its price could rise. 

However, there are at least two factors that currently make it difficult to envision a significant improvement in this situation in the short term. 

The first is that the minor liquidity crisis mentioned above is actually still ongoing. It is true that about one-third of the volume of dollars accumulated in U.S. government accounts during the shutdown has already been released into the markets, but it is also true that the remaining two-thirds are still held there. 

At the current pace, it could take between two to four weeks before this minor liquidity crisis is completely resolved. 

The second factor concerns competition. 

Just as yesterday the silver market drained liquidity from Bitcoin, it is not certain that in the next two to four weeks similar phenomena might not occur involving other assets, such as gold. 

The price of gold has also been rising since last Monday, but this time a mini-speculative bubble has not inflated its price, as happened in the first half of October. If the liquidity exiting silver were to flow into gold, the problem for Bitcoin would remain. 

However, it should not be forgotten that the minor liquidity crisis mentioned above is inevitably bound to run its course, although it is unclear exactly when. Additionally, it should be noted that the Dollar Index might continue its decline throughout the rest of December, and possibly even into January 2026.