Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC’s Recovery Sustainable or a Dead-Cat Bounce?

After weeks of steady selling pressure, Bitcoin is showing its first signs of recovery. The recent bounce off the $80K demand zone sparked a strong move back above $90K, pulling sentiment slightly out of the fear zone. However, this is still a market trying to shake off a heavy downtrend. Therefore, buyers must prove this isn’t just another dead-cat bounce.

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC is reclaiming the mid-range green demand zone between $89,000 and $93,000. The price is likely to challenge the upper trendline of the descending pattern in the coming days, which has been acting as dynamic resistance since the breakdown from $116K.

Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain overhead, both around the $108K mark. That cluster of resistance elements near the $107K–$110K range is the real test for any sustained trend reversal. Until those moving averages flip into support, the broader structure remains bearish despite the recent bounce.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking above the bearish trendline with strong momentum. The fact that the price has created a higher low around $83K after weeks, fuels the sharp rally in this timeframe.

The asset is now testing the horizontal resistance around $93K and also tagging the descending trendline. This confluence makes the current zone critical. A clean break above and hold could open the door to the $103K supply zone. In comparison, a rejection here would likely lead to a pullback toward $88K, and potentially even a continuation of the bearish trend if it breaks below the $80K critical support zone.

On-Chain Analysis

Exchange Reserve

On the on-chain side, Bitcoin exchange reserves have recently posted a major drop, falling to their lowest level in years. This sharp decline in exchange-held BTC is typically seen as bullish, as it suggests coins are being moved into cold storage, likely for long-term holding.

Historically, when reserves drop while price recovers, it reflects accumulation by smart money. While not a short-term signal, this trend supports the longer-term bull case, showing that supply on exchanges continues to tighten, even during volatile price action.

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