Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis

Bitcoin recently took the hit I and my followers had been anticipating, correcting sharply from its all-time high of around $126,000, seen on October 6, 2025. It fell to recent lows around $80,000 effectively wiping out all gains made since the beginning of the year. The asset is currently trading in a fragile range between $81,000 and $91,000, putting the entire market in a defensive position. We’re seeing high realized losses, declining liquidity, and very cautious positioning in the derivatives market.

Looking at on-chain metrics, the market appears to be seeking some kind of equilibrium. Long-term investors are giving up at historic rates, while short-term investors remain confident. The key question for investors like us now is whether the price will find support at these critical cost-based levels, or whether we’ll see a deeper correction resembling the bear market structure of 2022.

Market Structure Analysis

Breaking Below Critical Cost-Basis Levels

Bitcoin’s recent drop below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis looks like a serious structural breakdown. Depending on which data source you look at, that basis sits somewhere…