Win Scenarios And All That’s On The Line For The Final F1 Race Of The Season

It’s not often that so much comes down to the final race of the 2025 Formula 1 season, but that’s what’s on the line in Abu Dhabi.

It’s hard to believe that testing for the 2025 season was all the way back at the end of February, but by Sunday, Dec 7th, it all comes to an end. Rarely has so much been on the line.

The 3-Way Battle For The Drivers’ Championship

What once looked like a clear path for Lando Norris to win the Drivers’ Championship has fallen apart over the last two races. Between Las Vegas, where he dove hot inside at the start to block Max Verstappen from moving into P1 in the first turn, pushing outside at the apex, allowing Verstappen to pass and ultimately win the race, to having not just his McLaren, but teammate Oscar Piastri’s cars both disqualified for wear on the plank under the car being out of regulation, to McLaren’s pit strategy at Qatar that led to Verstappen stealing another win there, suddenly, Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri all have a shot of winning the title.

So, who has the inside line? It’s still Norris with the best shot. Below is a breakdown of scenarios that allows Norris, Verstappen, or Piastri to win the championship.

For Norris to win…

Norris is the current points leader with 408 points. If he finishes on the podium – P1, P2, or P3 – he wins outright. If he finishes fourth or lower, here’s what has to happen for him to win.

• Norris 4th, Verstappen 2nd and Piastri anywhere
• Norris 5th, Verstappen 2nd and Piastri anywhere
• Norris 6th and neither Verstappen nor Piastri win
• Norris 7th and neither Verstappen nor Piastri win
• Norris 8th, Verstappen 3rd and Piastri 2nd
• Norris 9th, Verstappen 4th and Piastri 2nd
• Norris 10th, Verstappen 4th and Piastri 3rd
• Norris 11th or worse, Verstappen 4th and Piastri 3rd

For Verstappen to win…

Second in the points with 396, Verstappen has to finish on the podium, no matter what. But it requires Norris to land as high as P4 or as low as P9 depending on where Vestappen stands on the podium.

• Verstappen 1st, Norris 4th and Piastri anywhere
• Verstappen 2nd, Norris 8th, and Piastri does not win
• Verstappen 3rd, Norris 9th, and Piastri does not win

For Piastri to win…

Once the points leader, Oscar Piastri has slipped to 3rd in the standings with 392 points. His path to the championship requires the most help. He has to finish at least 1st or 2nd. After that:

• Piastri 1st, Norris 6th and Verstappen anywhere
• Piastri 2nd, Norris 10th and Verstappen 4th

Will McLaren Avoid Their 2007 Gaff?

One of the biggest questions surrounds whether McLaren will issue drivers’ orders to Piastri or Norris. For the past few races, McLaren CEO Zak Brown had said he would let the two race. Now down to doing whatever it takes, that plan has shifted. Asked if he would put in team orders, Brown didn’t hesitate.

“Yes, of course. We’re realistic, we want to win this drivers’ championship,” the McLaren chief executive said. “If we get into the race and it’s becoming pretty clear that one has a chance and the other doesn’t, we’re going to do what we can to win. It would be crazy not to.”

Brown has to be fully aware of McLaren’s history in 2007, when the Drivers’ Championship slipped through the team’s fingers, when Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton dicing allowed Ferrari’s Kimi Räikkönen to steal the title.

Rest In Peace, DRS (2011-2025)

In 2026, Formula 1 will be under new car regulations, which will drastically alter the car. The Drag Reduction System (DRS), which was introduced in 2011 and sees a flap one on the rear wing on specific straights when a driver is within 1 second of a car in front of him, will no longer be part of the design. In it’s place will be an integrated system of active aerodynamics (X and Z Modes) and an electric power boost (MOM), making drag reduction automatic and shared, not just for the chaser, with front and rear wings adjusting for low drag on straights (X-mode) and high downforce in corners (Z-mode), plus a manual push-to-pass for extra hybrid power, creating a more balanced, efficient, and strategically complex racing dynamic.

So, the Abu Dhabi race will be the final time the DRS system will be used. Rest In Peace, DRS.