Analyst Cautions Gold Rally May Near Peak on Bearish Technical Signals

• Bearish RSI divergence signals fading momentum in gold’s record rally.

• Gold’s price has surged 60% year-to-date but shows signs of exhaustion in technical patterns.

• Analyst Henrik Zeberg warns of a potential major reversal, citing a weakening trendline and consolidation zone near all-time highs.

Gold rally warning: Analyst predicts peak after 2025 surge amid fading momentum. Discover key signals and market outlook for investors in this volatile safe-haven asset. Stay informed on gold prices today.

What is Causing the Gold Price Rally Warning in 2025?

Gold price rally warnings have emerged as the metal hits record highs above $4,200, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainty, but technical indicators suggest underlying weakness. Analyst Henrik Zeberg points to a bearish RSI divergence where prices rise while momentum fades, a classic sign of an impending reversal. This fragility could lead to a significant pullback if support levels break, impacting investor strategies in precious metals.

How Does RSI Divergence Indicate a Peak in Gold’s Rally?

RSI divergence occurs when gold’s price charts new highs, but the Relative Strength Index fails to confirm with lower peaks, signaling diminished buying pressure. Zeberg, a macro economist specializing in cycle analysis, notes this pattern has appeared at the end of previous bull runs. Supporting data from market charts shows gold’s RSI dropping below 70 despite prices climbing, a threshold often marking overbought conditions. Experts like those from traditional financial firms have echoed similar concerns in recent reports, emphasizing that such divergences preceded 20-30% corrections in assets like commodities during past cycles. Short sentences highlight the risk: momentum is waning. Consolidation patterns reinforce this, with gold repeatedly testing resistance around $4,200 without breakout conviction.

Zeberg’s analysis draws from decades of market cycle studies, where he has accurately forecasted turns in equities and commodities. He describes the current setup as a “tired” structure, vulnerable to external shocks like Federal Reserve decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the gold price rally in 2025 sustainable amid analyst warnings?

The gold price rally in 2025 has delivered over 60% gains, fueled by safe-haven demand and central bank buying, but sustainability is questioned due to technical weaknesses like RSI divergence. Henrik Zeberg predicts a potential cliff-like drop if the ascending trendline breaks, advising caution for long-term holders as inflation narratives weaken.

What factors could trigger a gold price decline in late 2025?

A gold price decline in late 2025 could stem from fading inflation expectations, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, or breaking key technical supports like the ascending trendline around $4,000. Natural market shifts, such as profit-taking after 50 all-time highs, might accelerate this, especially if global uncertainty eases and investors rotate to riskier assets like equities or cryptocurrencies.

Key Takeaways

• Weakening Momentum: Bearish RSI divergence shows gold’s rally losing steam despite surface-level records.
• Technical Vulnerabilities: A broad consolidation zone and at-risk trendline increase reversal odds, per analyst insights.
• Market Context: With 60% YTD gains, watch Fed meetings for cues; prepare for volatility in safe-haven trades.

Conclusion

The gold price rally in 2025 has captivated investors with its relentless climb to $4,198, bolstered by central bank demand and macro uncertainties, yet analyst Henrik Zeberg’s RSI divergence and trendline warnings signal a possible peak. As momentum fades beneath the highs, precious metals markets face heightened reversal risks heading into 2026. Investors should track upcoming Federal Reserve announcements closely and diversify portfolios to navigate potential declines in this key safe-haven asset.

Gold’s trajectory remains intertwined with broader economic signals, including inflation trends and policy shifts. While year-to-date performance stands at an impressive 60%, the fragile structure highlighted by experts like Zeberg underscores the need for vigilance. Central banks’ aggressive buying, which added over 1,000 tons in 2025 according to industry data, has propped up prices, but retail investor sentiment could shift rapidly if technical breaks occur.

Looking deeper, gold’s role as a hedge against fiat currency risks persists, particularly in an era of digital assets like Bitcoin gaining prominence. However, Zeberg’s bearish outlook contrasts with optimistic forecasts from institutions such as the World Gold Council, which project sustained demand through geopolitical tensions. His quote captures the urgency: “Gold is about to fall over the cliff in a very big way. The ‘inflation-coming’ narrative cannot hold it longer… Long – and strong decline coming.”

Market participants note that silver’s contrasting surge to new records adds nuance, potentially diverting flows from gold. Trading volumes have swelled, with spot gold averaging 30% higher than 2024 levels, per exchange data. Yet, the modest 0.24% daily dip to $4,198 reflects positioning ahead of pivotal events.

For those monitoring commodities, this rally warning serves as a reminder of gold’s cyclical nature. Historical precedents, including the 2011 peak followed by a multi-year bear market, illustrate how divergences can precede sharp corrections of 25% or more. Zeberg, with his track record in macro calls, bases his view on proprietary cycle models that have anticipated turns in assets from stocks to metals.

Institutional interest remains robust, with exchange-traded funds seeing inflows exceeding $50 billion this year. Nonetheless, the consolidation zone’s persistence—where gold oscillates without upward conviction—builds pressure. A break below the ascending trendline, established since early 2025, could confirm Zeberg’s scenario, targeting levels around $3,500 in a worst-case drawdown.

Broader context includes competition from cryptocurrencies, which some view as modern gold equivalents. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has hovered around 0.4 in 2025, per analytics firms, suggesting parallel safe-haven dynamics. If gold falters, capital might flow into digital alternatives, amplifying volatility.

Zeberg’s emphasis on the “inflation-coming” narrative’s exhaustion aligns with cooling CPI readings in major economies. U.S. inflation eased to 2.5% in November 2025, reducing gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. European and Asian central banks continue accumulation, but at a decelerating pace, per their public disclosures.

Traders are advised to employ risk management, such as stop-loss orders below key supports. The Federal Reserve’s December meeting looms large, with 75% probability of a rate cut priced in by futures markets. A dovish outcome might briefly buoy gold, but Zeberg argues structural weaknesses override short-term boosts.

Ultimately, this gold price rally warning encapsulates the tension between exuberance and caution in 2025’s markets. As records accumulate—over 50 this year alone—the focus shifts to sustainability. Investors balancing portfolios across precious metals, equities, and crypto should heed these signals for informed decision-making moving forward.