Strategy Signals New Bitcoin Buy As Michael Saylor Says `Back To Orange Dots?’

Michael Saylor signaled Strategy may buy more Bitcoin this week after he posted a screenshot of the SaylorTracker chart with the caption, “₿ack to Orange Dots?”

Historically, similar Sunday posts have been followed by announcements that the company has acquired more BTC. 

A fresh purchase would lift its holdings above 650,000 BTC, currently valued at over $59 billion with an unrealized gain near 22%.

If the company does indeed announce another Bitcoin acquisition later today, it will see the company’s large BTC reserves climb to above 650K coins, accumulated at an average price of $74,431.

Strategy BTC holdings (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries)

Saylor’s question as to whether the company should return to “orange dots” refers to the dots on the SaylorTracker chart. Last week, Strategy added its first green dot to the chart when it established a $1.4 billion USD reserve to cover dividend payment obligations. 

Strategy’s Recent Buying Activity Could Be Early Signal Of A Bear Market

Strategy has continued buying during price weakness, although recent tranches have been smaller than earlier in the year.

In the past two months, the company’s BTC purchases have been mostly under 1,000 coins. The only exception was on Nov. 17, when Strategy bought 8,178 BTC for $836 million, the company’s website shows.

Commenting on Strategy’s Bitcoin buying activity, CryptoQuant warned that the slowdown and the establishment of the $1.4 billion USD reserve could be pre-emptive moves by the company to prepare for a drawn-out bear market. 

JPMorgan Says Strategy Holds Key To BTC Direction, MSCI Exclusion Risk Looms

Given Strategy’s substantial holdings in the largest crypto by market cap, JPMorgan analysts said that the company holds the key to BTC’s future direction. 

Analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that the ratio between Strategy’s enterprise value and its BTC holdings, or mNAV, has remained above 1. They called this an “encouraging” sign for the overall market. 

The report came after Strategy’s stock price plummeted more than 54% over the past six months, coinciding with a broader digital asset treasury (DAT) firm pullback. 

Along with the correction seen in the DAT landscape, Strategy is also preparing for a possible removal from MSCI indexes next month. If this happens, JPMorgan said it could lead to up to $12 billion in lost buying power for Strategy’s stock (MSTR). MSCI’s decision is scheduled for Jan. 15.

Cantor Fitzgerald last week slashed its price target for Strategy’s share price by 60%, but it maintained its “buy” rating for MSTR and said fears of a selloff are ”overblown.”

Saylor has reportedly been in talks with MSCI, and Strive CEO Matt Cole urged MSCI to rethink its proposal to remove treasury firms from its indexes, warning that it would reduce investors’ access to ”the fastest-growing part of the global economy.”

Worries that MSTR may be forced to sell Bitcoin if it is delisted from MSCI indexes is “flat wrong,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said last week.

“I understand why bears want to embrace the MSTR ‘doom loop’ idea,” he said in a Dec. 3 note to clients. “It would indeed be very bad for the bitcoin market if MSTR had to sell its $60 billion of bitcoin in one go. But with no debt due until 2027 and enough cash to cover interest payments for the foreseeable future, I just don’t see it happening.”