Crypto faces $237M wave of linear unlocks as supply pressure builds

The coming week expects to see $237M in total new token inflows. Most of the additions will come from linear unlocks on high-profile tokens. 

Linear unlocks rarely shock the market as in the case of cliff unlocks, but they still present the challenge to absorb more new tokens. 

Major linear unlocks include the usual SOL supply expansion, TRUMP meme token unlocks, and scheduled linear unlocks for ASTER, AVAX, and TAO. DOGE, the original no-limit mined coin, will also add $1M worth of new coins. TRUMP unlocks will also reach $4M per day for the coming week. 

The total value of linear unlocks will exceed $237M. This week’s unlocks follow the previous period’s unlocks of just around $218M. 

This week will also host the Stable project unlock, valued at $566.38M based on pre-market trading. The unlock will coincide with the main net launch and general native token generation, bringing a new network specialzied in stablecoin transfers. The effect of the Stable launch will be different compared to other projects, which already have a trading history and reactions to regular unlocks.

Market expects $106M in cliff unlocks

The coming week expects $106M in cliff unlocks, of which several will bring more than $5M in new tokens to the market. 

Significant cliff unlocks are coming for CONX, APT, STRK, CHEEL, LINEA, and BB tokens. 

Connex (CONX) expects one of the most significant shifts in its supply structure, with $21.85M in new unlocks. CONX is 82% unlocked, with more linear or scheduled regular unlocks until April 2027. 

Market prepares to absorb Web3 unlocks 

Most of the unlocks in the coming week come from Web3 projects, related to infrastructure or individual apps. 

Pump.fun (PUMP) will unlock $30.9M in new tokens, and may attempt to balance some of the inflows through its regular buybacks. 

Aptos, one of the busiest chains for DeFi, will add $19.9M worth of tokens. LINEA tokens will add another $11M in new supply. LINEA will add 6.78% to its circulating supply, one of the most impactful unlocks in the coming week. 

Other notable Web3 unlocks include Mocaverse, Avantis, and others. Web3 projects still carry their legacy unlocks from early VC backing, while continuing to absorb the price pressure. 

Overall, token unlocksh have a long-term effect on project reputations. Even with a growing price, the unlocks do not allow the asset to break out to a higher price range. Most of the projects with regular unlocks see their total market cap grow, even with a much weaker token price growth. Not all projects with a rising market capitalization are capable of staging a token breakout.

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