Crypto Markets Waver Ahead of Fed Call

Bitcoin slipped about $2,650 on Monday after failing to break above the $92,250 resistance zone. The rejection came as US equities reversed lower, weighed down by worries about the job market and stretched valuations in AI-related stocks. With the Federal Reserve’s policy decision coming up on Wednesday, traders are cautious, and BTC’s chances of snapping back toward $100,000 now depend heavily on how the market digests macro risks. The BTC monthly futures premium has stayed below the neutral 5% level for two straight weeks, showing weak demand for leveraged longs — consistent with Bitcoin’s 28% drawdown since its October peak. At the same time, global growth concerns and missing economic data from the 43-day US government shutdown have left traders flying blind. Even a widely expected 0.25% rate cut hasn’t helped sentiment, especially after private job data showed more than 71,000 layoffs in November. Housing data also added pressure, with a spike in cancelled deals and a softening in home prices.

In the ETF landscape, BlackRock continues to push deeper into crypto with its filing for the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB), which would list on Nasdaq if approved. If greenlit, ETHB becomes one of the first regulated investment vehicles tied to staked ETH. BlackRock already runs the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, and its expansion into staking products signals growing institutional interest despite recent market weakness.

Coinbase is also making a major move, returning to the Indian market after a two-year absence. The exchange has reopened registrations and plans to add local fiat on-ramps in 2026. Coinbase says it wants a clean regulatory reset in India, where it previously onboarded millions of users. For now, new Indian users will have access to crypto-to-crypto trading.

Meanwhile, ZKsync Lite — the first ZK rollup ever deployed on Ethereum — is being officially sunset in 2025. The network served as a critical proof-of-concept for zero-knowledge technology but lacked smart contract support. Its successor, ZKsync Era, now carries the torch with full zkEVM functionality. The team plans to release migration steps soon.

Circle Internet Group has secured a key license from Abu Dhabi’s financial regulator and hired a regional veteran to run its Middle East and North Africa operations, marking the company’s most direct push yet into a market positioning itself as a hub for regulated digital finance.Issued by Abu Dhabi Global Market—the international financial center and free economic zone of Abu Dhabi—the license authorizes Circle to operate as a regulated Money Services Provider under the capital’s financial services oversight. Joining Circle’s efforts in the UAE and MENA is Dr. Saeeda Jaffar from Visa, where she served as senior vice president and group country manager for the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Market  Outlook

BTC is still under pressure below key moving averages, and traders will watch whether price can reclaim the $92,000–$95,000 zone before the Fed’s announcement. A break under last week’s lows risks another sweep toward $80,000. ETH is stuck in a tight range, but BlackRock’s staking ETF filing could improve sentiment if approved. The $3,000 level remains the battlefield. XRP continues to lag, with sellers defending every bounce. A push above $2.20 is needed to signal momentum, while a drop below $1.80 could open deeper downside.

The broader market remains sensitive to macro headlines, but ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and institutional expansion continue to provide a constructive backdrop for medium-term recovery.

Bitcoin remains pinned below its 20-day EMA near $94,000, a level that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the October high. Unless buyers reclaim this zone with conviction, liquidity remains stacked below $88,000, where large bids are waiting. A break under that region exposes deeper liquidity pockets at $84,000 and $80,500. Only a decisive close above $100,000 would neutralize the current downtrend and open a path toward $105,000 liquidity sweeps.

Ether is hovering near $3,000 and continues to trade below the resistance band at the 20-day EMA and the 0.382 Fib at $3,150. If buyers can reclaim the $3,350 level—the key 50% retracement—momentum flips bullish, with the 50-day SMA near $3,650 acting as the next magnet. Failure to hold $2,623 risks triggering the next liquidity sweep toward $2,400 and $2,111.

XRP remains constrained inside its descending channel, with sellers defending every rally toward the 20-day EMA around $2.18. The liquidity map shows a heavy cluster near $1.61, indicating strong interest from both bulls and bears. A clean break above the channel’s downtrend line would signal the start of a broader reversal, while a breakdown under $1.61 unlocks the next liquidity pool toward $1.25.

BTC is still weak below the 20-day EMA near $94K, with liquidity stacked under $88K and deeper bids around $84K–$80.5K. A daily close above $100K is the first real sign of momentum shifting back to the bulls. ETH is holding near $3K but remains capped by resistance at $3,150 and $3,350; losing $2,623 risks a slide toward $2,400 and $2,111. XRP continues to drift inside its descending channel, with $2.18 acting as near-term resistance and $1.61 the key support level to watch. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious, and rallies are likely to face selling pressure until major moving averages are reclaimed across BTC, ETH, and XRP.

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