Descending Trendline Caps Recovery As ETF Launch Fails To Ignite Breakout

• XRP remains capped below a descending trendline and stacked EMAs, keeping price trapped despite the launch of a U.S. spot XRP ETF.
• The 21Shares XRP ETF adds structural support and institutional access, but muted volume shows traders are not chasing momentum yet.
• Wrapped XRP expands DeFi utility across major chains, though price action still depends on a breakout above $2.25 for confirmation.

XRP price today trades near $2.04, holding just above short-term support as sellers continue to defend a descending trendline that has capped every rebound since October. Despite the launch of a U.S. spot XRP ETF and fresh developments expanding XRP’s DeFi reach, price action remains constrained, reflecting a market that is still digesting positioning rather than chasing momentum.

21Shares officially launched its XRP ETF (TOXR) on CBOE on December 11, offering U.S. investors regulated exposure to XRP with a 0.30% expense ratio. The product expands institutional access to XRP through traditional brokerage channels and adds another layer of legitimacy to the asset’s market presence.

The ETF launch reinforces XRP’s standing as one of the most institutionally relevant digital assets, particularly given its role in cross-border payments across more than 55 countries. Custody support from Coinbase, Anchorage Digital Bank, and BitGo further strengthens confidence around the product’s infrastructure.

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However, the market reaction has been muted. XRP did not see a sustained volume surge following the announcement, signaling that traders are treating the ETF as a longer-term structural positive rather than a near-term catalyst. This explains why price remains range-bound despite headline support.

Daily Chart Shows XRP Trapped Below EMA Cluster

On the daily chart, XRP remains under its key moving averages. The 20-day EMA near $2.11, 50-day EMA at $2.24, 100-day EMA at $2.41, and 200-day EMA at $2.46 are all stacked overhead, forming a dense resistance band.

Price is also pressing against a descending trendline that connects the October and November highs. This trendline currently converges with the EMA cluster, reinforcing the ceiling between $2.10 and $2.25.

As long as XRP trades below this zone, upside attempts are likely to stall. The structure remains corrective rather than trending, with lower highs defining the broader pattern.

Support sits near $2.00, followed by the rising base around $1.85–$1.80. That lower trendline has held through recent volatility, preventing a deeper breakdown.

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RSI on the daily chart sits near 43, reflecting weak momentum but not capitulation. The indicator suggests room for a recovery attempt if buyers step in with conviction.

Intraday Price Action Stabilizes Around VWAP

On the 30-minute chart, XRP is consolidating near the VWAP zone around $2.03–$2.04. Short-term price action shows higher lows forming after the recent dip, but momentum remains controlled rather than impulsive.

RSI on the intraday timeframe has recovered toward 59, signaling improving short-term demand. However, volume remains modest, and rallies fade quickly near $2.06–$2.08.

This behavior suggests positioning rather than speculation. Traders appear to be waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes before committing capital.

A sustained hold above $2.05 would be the first signal that buyers are gaining traction. Until then, price action remains neutral.

Beyond the ETF launch, XRP received another structural boost through the announcement of wrapped XRP (wXRP) by Hex Trust. The initiative allows XRP to be used across Ethereum, Solana, Optimism, and other ecosystems with more than $100 million in total value locked at launch.

The move expands XRP’s reach into DeFi applications such as swaps, liquidity provisioning, and collateral use, all within a regulated custody framework. That removes a long-standing limitation around cross-chain exposure.

Despite the significance of this development, price reaction has been limited. The market appears focused on broader liquidity conditions rather than utility expansion alone. This reinforces the idea that XRP’s next move will depend more on technical confirmation than headlines.

Outlook. Will XRP Go Up?

Bullish case: A daily close above $2.10 followed by a breakout through $2.25 would signal a trend shift. Clearing the EMA cluster opens the path toward $2.45 and then $2.60, where the next supply zone sits. Sustained volume would be required to validate the move.

Bearish case: Failure to hold $2.00 exposes $1.85, with a deeper pullback toward $1.75 if the rising trendline breaks. A rejection at the descending trendline keeps XRP locked in consolidation and delays any recovery attempt.

If XRP reclaims $2.25, buyers regain control. Losing $2.00 confirms that the market is not ready to price in ETF and DeFi developments just yet.

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