Vanguard opens bitcoin ETF access but doubles down on skepticism

Vanguard pushed a sharp line on Bitcoin after opening its platform to spot ETF trading, saying the firm still sees no long-term case for the coin. The comment came from John Ameriks, the firm’s global head of quantitative equity, who spoke at Bloomberg’s ETFs in Depth event in New York.

He said the coin brings no income, no compounding, and no cash flow, and said the firm views it as a collectible rather than a productive asset.

John also said the firm has not seen proof that the technology behind it offers lasting economic value and said, “it’s difficult for me to think about Bitcoin as anything more than a digital Labubu,” referring to the plush toy that went viral. His comments landed while the coin trades near $92,000, retreating from $126,000 only weeks earlier.

Vanguard’s stance lines up with its earlier view of crypto, which it has called speculative. The firm oversees about $12 trillion and still does not plan to launch its own crypto ETFs.

But it opened trading access earlier this month for investors who want to buy and sell these funds.

John said the decision came after watching ETFs tied to Bitcoin build records since January 2024. He said the firm wanted to make sure the products show “what’s on the tin, the way that they’re described,” before giving people access. John also stated that Vanguard will not provide any advice on when to buy or sell and will not recommend any specific tokens to clients.

A spokesperson said the firm does see potential in blockchain as a tool that may improve how markets work, even though that view does not change the firm’s position on the token itself.

Vanguard lets users trade ETFs but sticks with its view

John did point out a few cases where the coin could have value outside speculation. He said he could imagine moments where Bitcoin moves in useful ways during high inflation or political stress. He said its history is still short and does not yet show a pattern that makes those cases clear.

John said, “If you can see reliable movement in the price in those circumstances, we can talk more sensibly about what the investment thesis might be and what role it could play in a portfolio,” but said the market does not yet show that.

He also repeated that the firm does not plan to offer advice around the ETFs now listed for clients. He said Vanguard wants investors to decide for themselves, that’s why it opened access only after watching how the early ETFs performed since the January 2024 debut.

Standard Chartered reduced its view for the coin as demand from corporate treasuries slows and ETF inflows fall. The bank now sees Bitcoin moving to $150,000 by the end of 2026 after cutting an earlier call of $300,000. It also moved its long-term target of $500,000 to 2030 after first placing it in 2028.

Bernstein analysts said they expect the coin to move toward $150,000 by the end of next year and see it approaching $200,000 by the end of 2027. They pulled back a call for a $200,000 top this year after the downturn.

They said the coin now appears to operate outside the four-year cycle that shaped its earlier years and may follow a steadier path going forward.

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