Monthly MACD Cross Hits XRP as ETFs Target the Limited 42.87% Circulating Supply

TLDR

• XRP prints a bearish monthly MACD cross, mirroring past cycle shifts seen in 2018 and 2022.
• ETF inflows now tap a limited 42.87% supply, creating tighter conditions for market participants.
• Analysts note shrinking momentum on monthly charts as histogram levels weaken for the third major cycle.
• ETFs hold 0.75% of supply, steadily drawing from the liquid pool that shapes real market availability.

XRP’s Monthly MACD Cross is drawing attention as traders evaluate a new shift in market structure while ETF accumulation targets the limited 42.87% circulating supply.

 Market participants are reviewing both developments because each influences the asset from different angles. The combination of a major technical event and supply-driven demand has placed XRP under closer observation.

The current setup brings together long-term momentum readings and the pressure created by ETF inflows. 

As both trends unfold, analysts continue to assess how these parallel forces may shape the next phase of trading.

Monthly MACD Cross Signals Possible Trend Shift

A new bearish MACD cross has appeared on the XRP monthly chart, according to trader STEPH IS CRYPTO. 

The chart noted that this reading mirrors the events of 2018 and 2022, when similar crosses preceded extended downward phases. The chart also shows reduced histogram strength and a clear turn in momentum.

In 2018, the cross formed shortly after the asset reached its peak. That shift marked the start of a multi-year decline as momentum weakened and distribution widened across the market. Traders remember that period as one in which activity slowed and selling pressure remained present.

A similar pattern emerged in 2022. Once the MACD crossed downward, the market moved away from its earlier rally and entered a quieter phase. 

The new 2025 reading has sparked questions about whether another extended cooling period may develop, as monthly charts rarely produce signals tied to short-term fluctuations.

ETFs Target the Limited 42.87% Circulating Supply

While the chart signal gains attention, ETF activity is also shaping the discussion. 

Analyst SMQKE noted that only 42.87% of the total XRP supply is considered liquid and available to the broader market. This is the pool from which ETFs acquire their holdings, not the full supply.

The post stated that ETFs currently hold 0.75% of the total supply. Although this share remains small, each increase directly draws from the limited circulating portion. 

As ETF demand expands, the remaining supply available on exchanges decreases, and traders monitor how quickly this process continues.

The user added that ETFs do not need to absorb the entire supply to influence availability. By steadily reducing the 42.87% slice, ETF inflows can tighten conditions over time.

 This has prompted some market participants to watch both trend signals and supply behavior as they evaluate XRP’s next moves.

With a monthly MACD cross forming and ETF accumulation engaging with a restricted supply pool, XRP’s market structure is at a key point. Traders continue to observe how these factors develop as the asset moves through its next trading cycle.

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