Stellar (XLM) Weekly Analysis: Can Price Break Resistance and Reach 0.47?

• Stellar (XLM) stays locked in a weekly downtrend.
• Sellers dominate below key moving averages.
• Momentum indicators confirm bearish control.
• Stellar network sees real-world sovereign use.

Stellar (XLM) on the weekly chart remains under pressure following the sharp rally seen in late 2024 and early 2025. That move ended in a classic blow-off top, after which the price shifted into a corrective downtrend. XLM continues to post lower highs and lower lows, trading near $0.218 and staying below the declining 9-week EMA around $0.2605, which has consistently capped upside attempts.

Stellar’s price is now drifting toward the lower Bollinger Band near $0.189, highlighting persistent selling pressure and expanding downside volatility. Immediate support sits at $0.19–$0.20, followed by $0.16–$0.17 and a deeper macro floor around $0.12–$0.13. On the upside, resistance remains firm at $0.26–$0.27, then $0.32–$0.33, with $0.45–$0.47 marking the upper extreme.

Market structure suggests XLM is still in a markdown phase rather than true accumulation. Strong red weekly candles and a widening lower Bollinger Band point to seller dominance, not aggressive dip-buying. The most likely scenario is a breach below $0.19 to $0.17, and then $0.13. An upside reversal rally will require consistent closes beyond $0.27, and then target $0.32.

Also Read: Stellar Launches First On-Chain UBI: XLM Eyeing a Multi-Year Turnaround

Momentum Indicators Reinforce Bearish Bias

The weekly RSI for Stellar is currently at about 35, strongly below the centerline at 50, establishing dominance by momentum on the negative side. The RSI is also nearing the oversold region, which strongly indicates a significant sell pressure. This region, at times, experiences a relief rally.

The MACD is still in the negative zone with the MACD below the signal line and increasing red bars in the histogram. This reinforces the trend, with a bearish trend in progress. The momentum remains weak since the trend reversed from the mid-year recovery, showing control by sellers.

Network Adoption Advances Despite Price Weakness

The Republic of the Marshall Islands has rolled out the first-ever blockchain-based universal basic income payment system using a sovereign bond, USDM1, on the Stellar network. Developed in partnership with the Stellar Development Foundation and Crossmint, the ENRA project is now able to provide financial payments directly to its citizens, without using cash.

USDM1 is a U.S. dollar-denominated bond collateralized with short-term Treasury bills and routed through the Stellar Disbursement Platform into the Lomalo wallets offered in the Crossmint platform. It is reiterated: It is a financial distribution tool, not a currency, designed to provide safe and instantaneous transactions, catering to the sparsely populated Marshall Islands.

Also Read: XLM Breakout Watch: Can Stellar Surge Toward $0.30 Before Year-End?