AI predicts Bitcoin price Q1 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to trade above the $100,000 mark in the first three months of 2026, despite the asset experiencing increased volatility, according to insights by an AI model.

Indeed, Bitcoin is ending 2025 having lost a major support zone at $100,000, with the risk of dropping below $80,000. 

To determine how the leading cryptocurrency might trade in the first quarter of the new year, Finbold sought insights from OpenAI’s ChatGPT model, which outlined several scenarios.

ChatGPT projects that Bitcoin is likely to enter the first quarter of 2026, emerging from a late-2025 consolidation phase, with price action favoring gradual upside continuation rather than an immediate explosive rally.

In its base-case outlook, ChatGPT sees Bitcoin trading between $95,000 and $120,000 in Q1, supported by post-halving supply constraints, renewed long-term holder accumulation, and stabilizing spot Bitcoin ETF flows following year-end rebalancing.

The model also expects a modest improvement in risk appetite as macro uncertainty eases, enabling Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level and move higher in a more orderly advance. This remains the most likely scenario if the current market structure holds.

ChatGPT’s bullish scenario sees Bitcoin reaching between $130,000 and $150,000 in Q1 2026, driven by early catalysts such as renewed institutional inflows into spot ETFs, clearer signals of monetary easing or liquidity expansion, or a broader return to risk-on assets, potentially accelerating price discovery above prior highs.

On the downside, the model outlined a bear-case range of $70,000 to $80,000 if ETF outflows persist, macro conditions tighten unexpectedly, or key long-term support levels fail and trigger forced selling. Even in this case, ChatGPT views the move as a cyclical reset rather than a breakdown of the broader bull market structure.

Bitcoin monthly price for 2026

On a monthly basis, ChatGPT expects January 2026 to act as a transition phase, with Bitcoin trading between $85,000 and $100,000. Residual selling pressure, ETF rebalancing, and thin liquidity could keep volatility elevated, while long-term buyers absorb downside. Holding above the mid-$80,000 range would signal the formation of a durable base.

February is projected to see Bitcoin trade between $95,000 and $115,000 as uncertainty fades, ETF flows stabilize, and supportive macro conditions allow a reclaim of the $100,000 level despite periodic pullbacks.

March carries the highest likelihood of a decisive move, with a projected range of $105,000 to $130,000, as sustained acceptance above $100,000 draws sidelined capital, leverage, and renewed speculative demand.

Overall, ChatGPT assigned a 60% probability that Bitcoin ends Q1 2026 between $105,000 and $120,000, a 25% chance of range-bound trading between $90,000 and $105,000, and a 15% risk of a deeper pullback toward $70,000 to $80,000. 

Bitcoin price analysis 

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $86,877, down 0.4% over the past day. On the weekly timeframe, the asset was also in the red, lower by 5.5%.

As things stand, Bitcoin is trading well below both its 50-day SMA of $95,970 and its 200-day SMA of $102,221. This positioning points to a firm bearish trend, with the price remaining under key moving averages and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA, signaling sustained downward momentum across both medium- and long-term horizons.

On the other hand, the 14-day RSI stands at 41.32, firmly in neutral territory but leaning toward the lower end. This suggests moderate selling pressure without reaching oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside before a strong reversal signal emerges.

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