PA Daily News | TGE has seen an 84.7% failure rate in 118 transactions so far this year; Tether is developing a mobile crypto wallet with integrated AI capabilities.

Today's top news highlights:

1. US House members from both parties draft a cryptocurrency tax bill, which includes tax exemption for stablecoins and deferred taxation for staking mining rewards.

2. Tom Lee responds to the controversy surrounding the conflicting outlook with Fundstrat, emphasizing the different responsibilities and timeframes of various analysts.

3. Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season always exists; it's just that some traders don't hold the rising cryptocurrencies.

4. Tether CEO confirms they are developing a mobile crypto wallet integrating AI.

5. Data: So far this year, 84.7% of the 118 TGE (Teaching Excellence) events have seen their prices fall below par, with only 15% of the events showing an upward trend.

6. Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, once transferred 500 bitcoins to a suspicious address to test the security of his private key, and subsequently lost 490 bitcoins.

Macro

US House members from both parties have drafted a bill on crypto taxation, which includes tax exemption for stablecoins and deferred taxation for staking and mining rewards.

Representatives Max Miller (Republican, Ohio) and Steven Horsford (Democrat, Nevada) are drafting a cryptocurrency tax bill called the Digital Asset Parity Act. This bill would provide tax breaks for certain stablecoin transactions and defer taxation on rewards earned from validating blockchain exchanges. It would also exempt capital gains tax on stablecoin transactions under $200. As a compromise between current IRS guidance and industry demands, taxpayers could choose to defer taxes on staking and mining earnings for five years, after which they would be taxed as ordinary income at fair market value. The bill extends wash-sell rules (preventing investors from selling at a loss and immediately repurchasing to claim tax credits) to digital assets and allows traders to use market capitalization for accounting.

Gemini signed a joint letter defending the original intent of the Genius Act: trading intermediary platforms should be allowed to continue offering stablecoin rewards.

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini announced on its X platform that it has signed a joint letter with over 125 companies and organizations, urging the U.S. Congress to uphold the original text of the Genius Act and not amend it. It is understood that legitimate stablecoin rewards benefit consumers and competition and are legally permitted under the Genius Act; revising the act would undermine certainty and innovation. Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss further explained that while the Genius Act currently prohibits stablecoin issuers from offering stablecoin rewards, trading platforms like Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken can, and this is already included in the current law. If traditional bankers amend the act to prohibit such behavior, it will stifle stablecoin innovation.

Opinion

Tom Lee responded to the controversy surrounding the conflicting outlook with Fundstrat, emphasizing that different analysts have different responsibilities and timeframes.

In response to conflicting outlooks on Bitcoin from Tom Lee and his Fundstrat analyst team, a user claiming to be a Fundstrat client, Cassian, posted that the interpretation of this debate was unfair and misleading. Tom Lee retweeted and replied, "Well said."

Cassian believes that the company's executives do not base their work on a single, unified forecast, but rather work according to different investment objectives, differentiating between long-term macroeconomic views, portfolio-level risk management, and technical analysis. Farrell's comments reflect a defensive positioning strategy focused on drawdown risk, capital flows, and cost basis, rather than a long-term bearish view on Bitcoin. Cassian states that Farrell has reduced the proportion of cryptocurrencies in its Fundstrat model portfolio for risk management reasons, while remaining optimistic about the long-term adoption trend beyond early 2026.

In contrast, Tom Lee's role focuses more on macro liquidity cycles and structural shifts in the market, including institutional investor adoption and how ETFs are changing the dynamics of Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles. Technical analyst Mark Newton's perspective, on the other hand, is entirely based on chart patterns rather than a macro narrative.

Fidelity analysts: Bitcoin's four-year cycle is not over; weak market performance expected in 2026.

Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro research at Fidelity, believes there are no signs on the charts that the four-year cycle has ended. "If we line up all the bull market charts, we see that after 145 weeks of gains, the high of $125,000 in October was very much in line with expectations." He points out that the current "bear market" should continue until 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.

Santiment: Crypto traders' panic on social media is insufficient; a market bottom has not yet formed.

Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich stated that crypto traders haven't yet shown enough panic on social media to confirm a market bottom has formed. Bitcoin could still fall to around $75,000.

Arthur Hayes: The altcoin season always exists; it's just that some traders don't hold the rising coins.

In a YouTube podcast interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the altcoin season has always been ongoing: "If you keep saying the altcoin season hasn't arrived yet, it's because you're not holding those coins that have gone up."

In the podcast, Hayes stated that many traders still expect altcoins to perform as they have in previous years, assuming the same cryptocurrencies and patterns will repeat themselves. However, traders should "adjust their strategies" and focus on new market movements rather than relying on history. "This is a new cycle, new things are emerging." Hayes pointed to Hyperliquid as "the most exciting story" in this crypto cycle so far, mentioning that it initially launched at "two or three dollars" and then "skyrocketed to $60." He also mentioned Solana, which, after most of its gains in 2022, fell to nearly "$7" but then surged to almost $300 at the beginning of this year.

Vitalik: Prediction markets are healthier than traditional markets and help in seeking the truth.

Vitalik, in a post on the Farcaster platform, stated that prediction markets are a remedy for the irrational views expressed on emotionally charged issues. The worst-case scenario for prediction markets is that they induce harm for profit, but this is not the case for small-scale prediction markets targeting large-scale events. Traditional stock markets also suffer from similar drawbacks, where political actors can profit from disasters by shorting stocks.

Vitalik points out that prediction markets have advantages over social media and mainstream media. Social media lacks accountability, while prediction markets, through profit and loss mechanisms, ensure that the system tends to seek the truth over time, and the probabilities they display more accurately reflect the uncertainty of the world than other systems. Because prediction market prices are confined between 0 and 1, they are healthier than ordinary markets and less affected by reflexivity effects, the greater fool theory, or market manipulation.

Project Updates

BitMine plans to hold its annual general meeting on January 15, 2026, to elect eight directors and amend the company's articles of association.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an Ethereum treasury company listed on NYSE American, a subsidiary of the New York Stock Exchange, announced that it will hold its annual shareholders meeting on January 15, 2026, in Las Vegas. The meeting will elect eight directors for a one-year term. In addition, the amendments to the articles of incorporation to increase the number of authorized common stock, the 2025 comprehensive incentive plan, and the special performance-based compensation arrangement for the executive chairman are expected to be approved at the annual shareholders meeting.

A phishing attack targeting 50 million USDT left a message for the hacker: a $1 million white-hat bounty would be offered if the funds were returned within 48 hours.

On-chain researcher Specter posted a message on the X platform from an address that lost 50 million USDT due to a phishing attack. The message stated that a criminal lawsuit has been formally filed, and with the assistance of law enforcement, cybersecurity agencies, and multiple blockchain protocols, substantial and actionable intelligence has been collected regarding the attacker's activities. The relevant wallet address is now under 24/7 monitoring. The attacker was reportedly required to return 98% of the stolen assets to a designated address within 48 hours. In return, $1 million would be reserved as a white-hat bounty for discovering and disclosing vulnerabilities; however, this offer was contingent on the attacker's full and timely cooperation. Once the funds are returned, the victim will consider the matter closed and will not take any further action.

Tether CEO confirms they are developing a mobile crypto wallet that integrates AI.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed on the X platform that Tether is developing a mobile cryptocurrency wallet with integrated AI capabilities. He stated that the wallet will only support BTC (also Lightning Network), USDT, USAT, and XAUT, and will integrate a local private AI via QVAC.

Yesterday's news revealed that Tether's CEO posted a job advertisement, seemingly indicating the upcoming launch of a mobile encrypted wallet product.

Important data

Data: So far this year, 84.7% of the 118 TGE (Teaching Excellence) events have broken their issue price, with only 15% showing an upward trend.

Ash Liew, founder of Memento Research and head of investment at Signum Capital, wrote on X that his firm tracked 118 token generation events (TGEs) in 2025 and compared their current FDV with their valuation at launch. The results showed that 84.7% (100/118) of the projects have a lower current FDV than their TGE valuation, meaning that approximately 4 out of 5 projects will experience a price drop after launch; the median price drop was 71% (67% in MC terms) compared to the initial offering valuation; only 15% of the tokens are still showing an increase compared to their TGE.

Vitalik has sold 114,500 KNC, 30.57 million STRAYDOG, and 1.05 billion MUZZ in the past two days.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Vitalik has sold 114,500 KNC ($22,300), 30.57 million STRAYDOG ($10,300), and 1.05 billion MUZZ ($5,600) in the past two days. Vitalik received 32,560 USDC and 1.89 ETH ($5,600) from these token sales.

This week, NFT transaction volume rose 11.31% to $68.98 million, with the number of buyers surging 50.28%.

According to CryptoSlam data, the NFT market transaction volume rose 11.31% to $68.98 million in the past week. The number of NFT buyers increased by 50.28% to 231,167; the number of sellers increased by 45.03% to 164,986; and the number of NFT transactions increased by 5.22%.

Ethereum network transaction volume reached $28.15 million, up 36.23% from the previous week; BNB Chain network transaction volume reached $8.67 million, down 19.16%; Polygon network transaction volume reached $4.73 million, up 50.38%.

This week's high-value deals include:

• Wrapped Ether Rock #38 sold for $265,594.19 (90 ETH).
• Beeple Spring Collection #100100001 sold for $186,493.03 (60 ETH).
• The $X@AI BRC-20 NFT sold for $160,299.03 (1.7951 BTC).
• Autoglyphs #192 sold for $156,342.55 (55 WETH).
• CryptoPunks #5133 sold for $131,200.81 (44.99 ETH).

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun once transferred 500 bitcoins to a suspicious address to test the security of his private key, only to lose 490 bitcoins in the process.

Regarding the widely discussed "50 million USDT phishing attack," F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun (@satofishi) tweeted, "Last year, I suspected my private key had been compromised. To confirm whether the address had indeed been stolen, I transferred 500 bitcoins to it. To my surprise, the hacker 'generously' only took 490 bitcoins, leaving me with 10 bitcoins, enough for me to make a living."

Investment and financing/acquisition

Hilbert Group acquires high-frequency trading platform Enigma Nordic for $32 million

Hilbert Group (HILB), a Swedish investment firm focused on connecting traditional and digital assets, has acquired high-frequency trading platform Enigma Nordic for $32 million. This acquisition will help Hilbert offer systematic cryptocurrency products to institutional investors, and the firm plans to integrate Enigma's platform into its hedge fund offerings.

The announcement stated that Enigma's proprietary platform employs a data-driven, market-neutral strategy, fully leveraging the inefficiencies of real-time pricing in the global digital asset market. The company's quantitative strategies have generated exceptional risk-adjusted returns, with a Sharpe ratio exceeding 3.0—a performance metric extremely rare among globally scalable market-neutral digital asset strategies. As of 2025, Enigma's trading volume exceeded SEK 50 billion (approximately USD 5.4 billion).