Galaxy Digital predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 despite 2026 uncertainty

Galaxy Digital’s crypto market predictions for 2026 include Bitcoin hitting $250,000 in the not-so-distant future despite the cryptocurrency losing about 30.2% of its value from its ATH of $126,080 in 2025. 

2026 has been declared “too chaotic to predict” by Galaxy Digital Research, but that has not stopped the Mie Novogratz-led company from predicting that Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2027.

Bitcoin predictions for 2026

Galaxy Digital Research has released its annual crypto market predictions for 2026, predicting that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, although they acknowledge that 2026 remains too unpredictable to call it with confidence.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, explained that options markets currently price equal odds of Bitcoin hitting either $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026, and equal odds of $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end 2026.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, driven by regulatory reforms and ETF inflows during the first ten months of the year.

However, the market experienced a sharp reversal and witnessed leverage liquidations, whale distribution, and shifting investment narratives. By December, Bitcoin had fallen back to the low $90,000 range and currently trades around $88,000.

The report identifies several factors responsible for the potential uncertainty for 2026, including the rate of AI capital expenditure deployment, monetary policy conditions, and the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Thorn emphasized that until Bitcoin firmly re-establishes itself above the $100,000 to $105,000 level, downside risk remains in the near term.

Galaxy released 26 predictions covering various aspects of the crypto ecosystem, including expectations that more than 50 spot altcoin ETFs will launch in the United States, U.S. spot crypto ETF net inflows will exceed $50 billion, and at least 15 crypto companies will IPO or uplist in the U.S. during 2026.

How accurate were Galaxy’s 2025 predictions?

Galaxy Digital predicted at the beginning of the year that Bitcoin would cross $150,000 in the first half and possibly reach $185,000 in the fourth quarter. By November, Thorn had lowered the year-end target to $125,000, and even that revised forecast appears unlikely to be met due to the significantly lower Bitcoin trades in December.

A major leverage unwinding event on October 10, 2025, caused significant market disruption, erasing approximately $78 billion in open interest across crypto futures.

More than 470,000 Bitcoins held for over five years, worth approximately $50 billion, changed hands during 2025. Galaxy facilitated one of the year’s largest single transfers, involving $9 billion worth of assets from a legacy whale.

Throughout 2025, institutional investment was more toward artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, nuclear energy, quantum technology, and gold.

Galaxy predicted that at least one major wealth management platform would announce a 2% or higher recommended Bitcoin allocation. It hit on that one as Morgan Stanley published a report announcing up to 4% allocation. They also accurately forecast that more than half of the top 20 publicly traded Bitcoin miners would become or partner with AI and high-performance computing firms.

However, Bitcoin did not cross $150,000 as Galaxy initially predicted, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs did not collectively reach $250 billion in assets under management, and Bitcoin did not finish among the top performers on a risk-adjusted basis among global assets.

Galaxy Digital sees big 2026 for stablecoins

Galaxy Digital predicts that stablecoins will overtake the U.S. Automated Clearing House system in transaction volume due to current data showing stablecoin transactions already exceeding major credit card networks like Visa and processing roughly half the volume of the ACH system.

Thad Pinakiewicz, vice president of research at Galaxy, said that stablecoin supply has been growing at a 30% to 40% compound annual growth rate along with transaction volumes. According to data from DefiLlama, the stablecoin market cap currently stands at approximately $309 billion, with Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC continuing to dominate the market.

Galaxy expects the passage and implementation of the GENIUS Act in early 2026 to accelerate stablecoin adoption. The act was signed into law by President Trump in July 2025 and provides regulatory clarity for stablecoins. It is expected to enable both incumbent tokens to grow and new entrants to compete for market share.

Jianing Wu, a research associate at Galaxy, explained that consumers and merchants are unlikely to juggle multiple digital dollars and will instead gravitate toward one or two options with the broadest acceptance.

Nine major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, and Citigroup, are already exploring plans to launch stablecoins based on G7 currencies.

In October, Western Union revealed plans for its U.S. Dollar Payment Token on the Solana blockchain. Sony Bank is developing a stablecoin for integration across its U.S. ecosystem, including PlayStation and subscription services, with a planned 2026 launch. Cryptopolitan reported earlier this month that SoFi Technologies has introduced SoFiUSD, a fully reserved dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank on Ethereum.

Galaxy’s expectations include that at least one of the top three global card networks will conduct more than 10% of its cross-border settlement volume through public-chain stablecoins, though most end users will never see a crypto interface.

Galaxy predicts that decentralized exchanges will capture more than 25% of combined spot trading volume by the end of 2026, up from roughly 15-17% currently. The firm also expects total crypto-backed loans outstanding to exceed $90 billion and predicts that more than $500 million worth of DAO treasury assets will be governed exclusively by futarchy decision-making systems.

The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them.