Trading Moments: Gold and silver hit new highs, Ethereum holds above $3,000, will Bitcoin see a "Christmas rally"?

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Driven by both expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 and escalating geopolitical tensions, macro markets exhibited strong risk aversion. Gold and silver prices both hit record highs, with spot gold breaking through $4,400 for the first time , up approximately 66% year-to-date; silver reached $69 , poised for its best annual gain of over 100% since 1979. Platinum also broke through $2,000 for the first time since 2008 , accumulating a gain of over 120% year-to-date. While market traders widely bet on two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, Beth Hammarck, president of the Cleveland Fed and soon to have a voting right on the FOMC, believes there is no need to adjust interest rates in the coming months given persistently high inflation, and hinted that the neutral interest rate may be higher than generally perceived. Ahead of the Christmas holidays, US stock index futures rose slightly, but the New York Stock Exchange will close early on Wednesday, Christmas Eve, and will be closed on Christmas Day, Thursday. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that gold will rise further to $4,900 per ounce next year, while TD Securities believes that although silver prices may fall, 2026 will be the year that platinum and palladium lead commodity prices.

Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $84,000 and $94,000 for a month, and is currently hovering around $88,000. Bullish analysts such as AlphaBTC and Captain Faibik are anticipating a "Santa Claus rally," believing the correction is complete and the price may soon break through and surge towards the $98,000 to $100,000 area. Korinek_Trades, based on Elliott Wave Theory, predicts the price could reach a new high of $150,000. Ignas points out that the expiration of a large number of options on December 26 could push the price to $96,000.

However, bearish voices cannot be ignored. Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich, analyzing social media sentiment, believes the market hasn't yet shown enough "panic" to confirm a bottom, and Bitcoin could still fall to $75,000. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain warns that a $1.4 billion in BTC inflow onto Binance could trigger a price pullback to the $70,000-$72,000 demand zone. Analysts like Killa and Doctor Profit predict the market may experience months of consolidation before initiating another deep decline in the first quarter of 2026, targeting $60,000. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer believes the four-year cycle is not over, and the bear market could continue into 2026, with support between $65,000 and $75,000. On-chain data analysis, analyst Murphy points out that a large amount of tokens have accumulated in the $80,000-$90,000 range, while $70,000-$80,000 is a liquidity vacuum and could become strong support. In the long term, Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn predicts that BTC could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, while Arthur Hayes believes that the Federal Reserve's RMP program is actually quantitative easing, and once the market realizes this, BTC will quickly surge to $124,000 to $200,000.

Ethereum 's price action is also at a critical juncture, consolidating around the $3,000 mark. Technical analysts Ted Pillows and Dami-Defi point out that ETH is currently in a contracting triangle pattern. A successful break above $3,000 and the 200-day moving average could see it test $3,200 or even $4,200; however, if rejected, it may retest the support zone of $2,700 to $2,800. Marcus Corvinus also notes that after breaking below the ascending channel, the price found support in the $2,750 to $2,850 demand zone and is currently at a crucial moment for directional choice. Man of Bitcoin, however, favors a pullback to the $2,825 to $2,894 area before breaking upwards. Notably, on-chain data shows positive signals. Analyst CW discovered that while smaller whales have reduced their holdings, whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have been significantly increasing their holdings since July, reaching an all-time high, indicating high expectations for a potential large-scale rebound. Michaël van de Poppe, analyzing from the perspective of market sentiment cycles, believes that the current pessimistic view of ETH is exactly the same as the "death" theory at $1,600, which is often a good opportunity for contrarian trading.

In the altcoin market, the Aave project recently experienced significant volatility. Its second-largest holder sold 230,000 AAVE tokens, incurring a loss of $13.45 million, causing the price to briefly drop 12% from $176 to $156. Following this, the Aave community proposed transferring brand ownership and social media accounts to DAO control, sparking debate about whether this truly embodies "decentralization." Furthermore, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the "altcoin season" is always ongoing, but investors need to focus on new narratives rather than repeating history. He cited Solana's rise from $7 to nearly $300 and the rise of Hyperliquid as examples, expressing optimism about Ethena's (ENA) potential.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on December 22)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $88,833 (down 5.1% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $27.13 billion.

• Ethereum: $3,022 (down 9.33% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $25.11 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 24 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 12.4%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, DOOD

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.01% / 49.99%

• Sector Performance: The NFT sector rose 8.48%, and the GameFi sector rose 4.47%.

• 24-hour liquidation A total of 105,027 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $172 million. This included $45.818 million in BTC liquidations, $37.3378 million in ETH liquidations, and $7.229 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 21)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $497 million last week

• Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $644 million last week

• Solana ETF: Net inflow of $66.55 million last week

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $82.04 million last week

4. Today's Outlook

• Aster will launch its fifth phase of airdrops on December 22nd, distributing 1.2% of the total supply.

• Binance Wallet: Bitway (BTW) Pre-TGE event will begin on December 22nd.

• MetaPlanet's extraordinary general meeting will be held on December 22, with the preferred stock issuance proposal pending review.

• The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third-quarter GDP data on December 23.

• Binance will remove several leveraged trading pairs, including DOT/FDUSD and ENA/FDUSD.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Audiera up 57.7%, Midnight up 25.1%, MYX Finance up 13.5%, Kaspa up 5.7%, and Sky (prev. Maker) up 5.6%.

5. Hot News

• Data shows that tokens such as H, XPL, and SOON will undergo significant unlocking, with H unlocking value estimated at approximately $14.8 million.

• This Week's Preview | Approximately $23 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26; Aster launches its fifth phase of airdrops.

• The Uniswap protocol fee switch proposal by UNIFication has met the legal threshold and is expected to take effect this week.

• H, XPL, SOON and other tokens will see a large unlock next week, with H unlocking value estimated at approximately $14.8 million.

• Dragonfly Capital has deposited 6 million MNT tokens into Bybit in the past 7 days, worth $6.95 million.

• This week, NFT transaction volume rose 11.31% to $68.98 million, with the number of buyers surging 50.28%.

• Hilbert Group acquires high-frequency trading platform Enigma Nordic for $32 million

• Vitalik dumped multiple tokens, including UNI and BNB, within two days.

• Brother Machi has consistently gone long over the past month, resulting in a net loss of approximately $3.515 million, with a win rate of 55.56%.