PANews reported on December 22 that, according to Coindesk, a study by prediction market platform Kalshi found that prediction markets outperformed Wall Street’PANews reported on December 22 that, according to Coindesk, a study by prediction market platform Kalshi found that prediction markets outperformed Wall Street’
Kalshi: Market forecasting outperforms Wall Street in predicting inflation.
PANews reported on December 22 that, according to Coindesk, a study by prediction market platform Kalshi found that prediction markets outperformed Wall Street’s consensus on inflation, with an average error reduction of 40% over 25 months.
The study points out that the advantage of prediction markets lies in their aggregation of diverse information from numerous traders based on economic incentives, creating a "collective intelligence" effect that allows for more sensitive responses to constantly changing market environments. These findings suggest that market-based forecasting can serve as a valuable supplementary tool for institutional decision-makers, especially during periods of uncertainty.
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