XRP Approaches Make-or-Break Trend Ribbon, Long-Term Targets $5–$8

• XRP is hovering around a critical long-term trend ribbon, with historical losses marking deep bearish cycles.
• Current pullbacks are corrective, supported by major long-term EMAs and Fibonacci levels, indicating structural bullishness.
• Short-term resistance lies at $2.25–$2.35, while long-term targets extend toward $5.50–$8.30 if momentum returns.

XRP’s monthly chart reveals a repeating long-term cycle that has shaped its market behavior for years. Analyst Steph noted that losing the monthly trend ribbon in 2018 and 2022 marked not just temporary pullbacks but full bearish trends, with XRP declining roughly 65% and 54%, respectively.

The trend ribbon acts as a momentum filter; trading above it signals bullish regimes, while trading below it flips momentum negative.

In the period from 2017 to 2018, the price of XRP appreciated very quickly but then began a distribution phase after the trend became negative. This trend resulted in lower highs with decreasing market movements and a failure to cross the trend line above, hence a large decline.

Source: X

This trend was seen in the 2021-2022 period, but with a decline by only 54%, indicating an improvement as the selling pressures eased.

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2025 Structure Shows Bullish Characteristics

Compared to the previous cycles, XRP is seen to have crossed over the monthly trend line in the Year 2025, and the trend line is now turning up.

This is typically the case when a bearish phase turns into a bullish phase. Pullbacks in the pricing have so far remained minimal, and former resistance points are now turning into support points.

In the weekly chart, the price of XRP increased in early 2025, breaking out of a longer-term range, initiating a strong advance. In this recent halt, it seems more a result of controlled-profit taking rather than panic selling.

Source: Tradingview

The technical pattern remains positive, with the price remaining above the 100-week moving average and 200-week moving average, currently at approximately $1.80 and $1.38, respectively.

XRP Faces Key Resistance at $2.25–$2.35

XRP is currently testing the level of $2.25 to $2.35, where the 20-week and 50-week moving averages converge.It could exhibit new signs of upward momentum beyond the Fibonacci extension level of $2.80 to $3.60 if the weekly close remains higher than the said range.

More ambitious targets for longer-term traders remain at $5.50 and $8.30, pending a risk-on market environment.

Source: Tradingview

The range between 0.382 and 0.5 Fib retracement levels is an important area that indicates a decision point. To hold this area suggests that the correction may merely be a retracement.

For the retracement to extend to the 0.618 level that approaches $1.35 to $1.40, it still would be appropriate in a healthy bullish scenario.

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