Report: The crypto market appears calm on the surface but is actually turbulent beneath; Bitcoin, though in a downward trend, may turn bullish in January.

PANews reported on December 29th that, according to a weekly market report from 10x Research, the crypto market entered the new year with cyclically low activity, but derivatives positioning quietly sent a completely different signal. Volatility is narrowing, funding rates are gradually rising, and leverage ratios remain high, even as trading volume and participation continue to decline. ETF fund flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions are no longer coordinated, resulting in a seemingly calm market with undercurrents. The options market is undergoing a correction, which usually indicates a shift in market structure rather than a continuation of a trend. Meanwhile, technical indicators are approaching critical points, and any small fluctuation could trigger a larger-scale asset allocation adjustment.

Cryptocurrency trading volume is down 30% from normal levels. Funding rates have risen slightly as orderly liquidation of futures contracts continues. Bitcoin's downtrend continues but may turn bullish in January. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43%, indicating a bullish signal, while the Stochastic Oscillator is at 30%, indicating a bearish signal. Bitcoin is 4.5% away from triggering a trend change, and the current trend is bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish level is $88,421, and the major bullish/bearish level is $98,759. Ethereum may also see a bullish trend change in January. Ethereum's RSI is at 44%, indicating a bullish signal, while the Stochastic Oscillator is at 23%, indicating a bearish signal. Ethereum is 5% away from triggering a trend change, and the current trend is bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish level is $2,991, and the major bullish/bearish level is $3,363. The realized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has begun to decline significantly: Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility is 38.2%, down 7% from its 30-day average of 45%. Ethereum's 30-day realized volatility is 61.2%, 5 percentage points lower than its 30-day average of 66.6%.