XRP price set for 41% drop as holder demand battles whales

Buyer interest is rising just as the xrp price tests a critical bearish channel that still points to a possible 41% breakdown.

Descending channel signals a potential 41% drop

The XRP market has been locked inside a descending channel since early October, with every rebound stalling near the upper trendline. However, the pattern still projects a potential 41% drop from the eventual breakdown point. Price action now hovers closer to resistance, yet the structure remains tilted to the downside.

Moreover, some on-chain signals suggest support is emerging. Broad holder participation has increased, helping the token stay near the upper band of the channel. That said, the lack of a decisive breakout keeps the bearish formation intact and limits bullish conviction.

Long-term holders flip from net selling to steady accumulation

Long-term holders have finally shifted behavior, according to the Hodler net position change metric. Between December 3 and December 26, this cohort posted a negative net position change every single day, signaling persistent distribution into weakness. The trend changed on December 27, when long-term wallets added 9.03 million XRP.

The next significant uptick arrived on December 29, when acquisitions climbed to 15.90 million XRP. Buying therefore surged almost 76% in just 48 hours, marking the strongest accumulation burst in weeks. However, while this demand has helped keep price action near the upper trendline of the falling channel, it has not yet forced an upside breakout.

Short-term holders expand, adding both support and risk

Short-term holders with a 1–3 month holding period are also growing their share, as tracked by the HODL Waves metric. Their slice of the total supply expanded from 9.58% on November 29 to 12.32% on December 29. This group is often responsible for rapid upside spikes because it reacts quickly to momentum.

However, the same agility makes this cohort the first to exit when volatility rises. Their aggressive buying can temporarily limit breakdowns by absorbing supply. That said, if rallies remain weak and momentum fades, these holders can become a powerful source of exit pressure, amplifying any downside move from the channel.

Whale distribution offsets inflows from other holders

While smaller and long-term wallets are buying, whales appear to be heading in the opposite direction. Large holders in the 100 million–1 billion XRP band cut their balances from 8.23 billion to 8.13 billion on December 28. This shift represents a reduction of 100 million XRP, or roughly $186 million in sell-side activity.

Moreover, the 1 million–10 million XRP cohort trimmed holdings from 3.58 billion to 3.55 billion. That 30 million XRP reduction equals approximately $55 million in additional selling pressure. Together, these whale exits counteract two layers of inflows from long-term and short-term buyers, generating persistent friction near resistance.

That selling makes every breakout attempt harder to sustain and helps explain why price keeps reverting to the channel’s mid-range instead of challenging higher resistance levels. If short-term holders start taking profit into any bounce while whales continue trimming positions, the downside move could accelerate sharply.

Critical support and resistance levels to watch

The market now sits at a clear crossroads as the xrp price continues to trade within the descending channel. It needs to hold above $1.79 to avoid an early breakdown from the current structure. Maintaining that support while long-term holders keep buying could push the next test toward $1.98.

A daily close above $1.98 would likely neutralize the bearish channel and open a path back to the $2.28 region, where bullish momentum historically improves. However, the setup remains vulnerable below these thresholds. If $1.79 fails, subsequent support levels emerge near $1.64 and $1.48, respectively.

Moreover, losing $1.48 would mark a clean break of the channel and expose the projected 41% downside risk toward the $1.27 zone and potentially lower. At this stage, broad holder buying has only slowed the deterioration in structure. It has not yet reversed the prevailing bearish channel or removed the overhang from whale distribution.

Why the structure remains fragile despite renewed demand

Current trading shows the xrp price near $1.86, down about 2% over the past 24 hours and almost 15% in the last month. What makes this configuration unusual is that multiple buyer segments are finally stepping in together. Long-term holders have returned to accumulation, and short-term traders are expanding their positions.

However, one key group remains unconvinced: whales continue to sell into strength. That clash between renewed retail and holder demand on one side and large-entity distribution on the other keeps the overall chart biased to the downside. Until whale flows flip back to accumulation, every bounce inside the channel is likely to face exit pressure from both nimble short-term wallets and profit-taking large addresses.

In summary, the market structure remains bearish, with a live 41% breakdown risk and key levels at $1.79 support and $1.98 resistance. Holder buying has stabilized conditions for now, but without a reversal in whale behavior, any rally attempts are at risk of failing before a decisive trend change can emerge.