What Analysts and Data Are Saying

• Predictions for 2026 have seen a notable shift toward a $150,000 price target
• Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, believes Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2026
• There is a 40% probability that Bitcoin will rise above $130,000 in 2026

If we’re to judge by what the analysts are saying, the outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 can be defined as one of tempered optimism. After a year of unprecedented institutional ETF activity and shifting macroeconomic goalposts, predictions for 2026 have seen a notable shift toward a $150,000 price target. 

Standard Chartered, once one of the market’s loudest bulls, recently slashed its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000. The bank cited slower-than-expected corporate treasury adoption and a growing reliance on ETF inflows rather than direct accumulation.

Bernstein analysts echo this $150,000 figure for the end of 2026, though they remain more bullish on the long tail, projecting $200,000 by late 2027. In their view, Bitcoin has fundamentally broken its traditional four-year cycle, moving instead toward a more durable, institutional growth trajectory.

Even the industry’s most prominent advocates are aligning around this range. Michael Saylor, executive chairman and co-founder of MicroStrategy, anticipates Bitcoin hitting $150,000 as it enters 2026. Saylor’s thesis is perhaps controversial, as he argues that Bitcoin’s volatility is lowering as the asset matures, which is a view that contradicts the fears held by many legacy traders.

Then, there are those who are mega bullish. Fundstrat maintains an upper bound of $200,000–$250,000, while Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, believes Bitcoin will reach $250,000 in 2026 based on its fixed supply and the potential for sustained adoption by institutions and large corporations.

Of course, not everyone is sold on the Bitcoin price going up. There is no shortage of conservative estimates from various Wall Street desks that now hover more cautiously between $110,000 and $135,000. 

Some, like Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, see 2026 as a down year for Bitcoin within its four-year cycle, citing a support range between $65,000 and $75,000 during consolidation.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Faces Mixed Signals as Traders Stay Active & Firms Turn Defensive

What data is showing

According to Polymarket, traders currently price a 40% probability that Bitcoin will rise above $130,000 in 2026. The odds of a run to $150,000 sit lower at 27%, reflecting a market that is pricing in a roughly 1-in-4 chance of a major breakout.

Technical data suggests that the 200-week moving average, which is historically the ultimate cycle floor, will rise to approximately $72,000 by Q1 2026. This creates a projected maximum drawdown of approximately 25% from current year-end levels ($95,000 range), a significantly shallower floor than previous cycles.

At the moment, the MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value) sits at a healthy 2.4. Historically, market tops are not reached until this score exceeds 7.0. This data point suggests that even at $150,000, Bitcoin would not be done, leaving room for the $250,000 top predicted by Fundstrat and Hoskinson.

Ultimately, the data suggests that 2026 will be the year the halving cycle is either validated or replaced by institutional flow. If we see a new ATH in H1 2026, the market will likely experience a steady ascent fueled by corporate buying. However, if ETF inflows remain stagnant, the conservative floor of $110,000 may become the primary battleground for the year.

Related: Will Early 2026 See a “Liquidity Bomb” That Sparks a New Crypto Supercycle?