CME Losses Top Spot to Binance in ETH Futures Amid Ethereum ETFs Outflow Spree

Key Insights:

• CME lost its top spot in Ethereum futures open interest to Binance.
• Institutional interest drops as evidenced by spot Ethereum ETFs outflow.
• ETH price can rally if it holds above $3,100.

CME Group, the largest derivatives marketplace, has lost its top spot to Binance as the largest Ethereum futures exchange by open interest. This happened amid continued outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs.

Institutional interest has dropped as Ethereum price hovers near $3,000 amid broader crypto market weakness. Will 2026 turn out more bearish or bring back institutions?

Binance Surpasses CME in Ethereum Futures Open Interest

CME Group, the largest derivatives marketplace, has lost its place as the top exchange for Ethereum futures open interest (OI). Binance surpassed CME to become the largest venue by open interest, according to CoinGlass data.

Binance has approximately 2.76 million ETH in open interest, worth $8.24 billion. Meanwhile, CME has an open interest of 1.69 million ETH, valued at $5.03 billion. Ethereum OI on CME has dropped to  $5 billion for the first time since July.

CME’s open interest began to decline just before the October 10 crypto market crash. The downfall from $10 billion to $5 billion was sharp as the profitability of the basis trade decreased. Traders buy spot Ethereum and sell futures in a basis trade to make profits from the price premium.

While open interest on Binance has also dropped significantly since early October, it increased in December amid Ethereum’s “buy-the-dip” sentiment among retail investors.

CME Ethereum open interest hit a record high of almost $11.05 billion as ETH price climbed toward $5,000. The annualized basis rate has dropped from almost 20% to 5%, according to Velo data. This shows declining returns for institutional investors.

Spot Ethereum ETFs Outflow Continues

Institutional interest in spot Ethereum ETFs and the planned network upgrades could help drive Ethereum’s price rally in the coming year. However, spot Ethereum ETFs continue to record outflows since crypto market crash.

Spot Ethereum ETFs saw $9.6 million in total outflows on Monday, marking the 4th consecutive outflow. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) recorded $13.3 million in outflow, continuing its outflow streak.

However, Fidelity’s FETH saw $3.7 million in inflow, sparking hopes of a potential rebound in Ethereum price. Many expect an upside breakout could target levels near $10,000, considering earlier bullish projections.

What’s Next for Ethereum Price in 2026?

Ethereum price is trading sideways near $3000 over the past 24 hours. The 24-hour low and high are $2,908 and $2,997, respectively. Furthermore, trading volume has increased by 10% over the last 24 hours, indicating heightened interest among traders.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows said ETH needs to reclaim and hold the $3,000 first for upside momentum. It has a liquidity cluster in the $3,000-$3,100 range.

Institutions such as Trend Research and Bitmine continue to accumulate Ethereum. Tom Lee- backed Bitmine Immersion purchased additional ETH to expand its total holdings to over $12 billion.

Matrixport predicts a multi-year triangle pattern breakout imminent in 2026. A breakout above the triangle could trigger a massive rally in Ethereum price.

“The coming year is likely to be one of the most pivotal in Ethereum’s history as this long-running formation finally resolves,” the firm added.

The derivatives market has shown selling in the last few hours, according to CoinGlass data. At the time of writing, the total ETH futures open interest is down 0.60% over the last 4 hours. The 24-hour ETH futures OI dropped more than 2%, with 10% fall in futures OI on CME.