MSTR Stock Fell 49.3% in 2025: What Awaits in 2026?

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock (MSTR) had a difficult 2025, declining 49.3% as sustained selling pressure drove shares to their lowest level since late September 2024.

As 2026 begins, the outlook remains challenging, with the company facing growing uncertainty over a potential exclusion from the MSCI index as the decision deadline looms on January 15.

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Why (Micro) Strategy’s Stock Struggled in 2025

2025 proved to be a tough year for the crypto market, and digital asset treasuries were not spared. The impact was quite visible in the performance of Strategy’s stock.

Market data shows that MSTR lost 49.3% of its value in 2025, with losses accelerating in the second half of the year.

Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the scale of the downturn, noting that MSTR has fallen 66% over the past six months alone. According to Pillows, nearly $90 billion has been wiped from the company’s market capitalization.

He pointed to several contributing factors, starting with Bitcoin’s underwhelming price performance. The largest cryptocurrency ended 2025 down 5.7%, defying many bullish forecasts. The muted performance placed substantial pressure on Strategy’s stock.

The company is closely tied to Bitcoin, being the largest corporate holder of the asset. It owns 672,497 BTC, equivalent to roughly 3.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

As previously reported by BeInCrypto, Strategy has spent over $50 billion accumulating Bitcoin, primarily financed through debt issuance and stock sales. In contrast, the company’s software business generates approximately $460 million in annual revenue, a figure that pales in comparison to its exposure to digital assets.

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While Strategy currently holds roughly $59 billion worth of Bitcoin, its total market capitalization stands at about $46 billion, raising concerns about valuation and balance sheet risk.

Besides BTC’s price, Pillows outlined several other factors, such as:

Despite this, the firm has continued to increase its Bitcoin exposure. In fact, Strategy has previously emphasized that its balance sheet is strong enough to withstand major downturns in Bitcoin’s price.

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MSCI Decision Poses a Key Risk for Strategy

While broader market conditions remain subject to change, Strategy faces a more immediate structural challenge tied to a pending MSCI decision.

MSCI has proposed reclassifying companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets as “funds.” This move could make them ineligible for inclusion in key equity benchmarks.

For Strategy, the implications are significant. A final decision, expected by January 15, could result in the company’s removal from MSCI indexes.

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JPMorgan estimates that an MSCI exclusion could result in as much as $8.8 billion in outflows. This would exacerbate existing stress on Strategy’s share price at a time when investor sentiment remains fragile. Thus, all attention is now on the MSCI decision, as it may shape Strategy’s near-term stock performance.